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Monday August 7, 2006 - 13:57:18 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD taking back some lost ground, after Friday’s pummelling…
• Mainly second tier data today, US consumer credit due.
• UK industrial production data came in softer than expected, while Swedish GDP was better than forecast lifting the SEK.

Market Outlook

The EUR-USD consolidated lower in early London trading, with the USD clawing back some lost ground. Activity is likely to be slow today as the market waits for the FOMC decision and statement on Tuesday. The key barrier to further USD losses remains at the $1.2950/1.30 zone. A break there could perceivably see a tussle between momentum sellers (attracted by the new lows) versus USD hedgers who would likely perceive these levels as attractive rates for their medium term positioning needs. The $1.2835 level is likely to offer support for EUR pullbacks on the day, with that key to hold to keep Friday’s $1.2775 low out of reach.

GBP-USD is holding fairly flat at around 1.9050 now, off the 1.9130 post-payrolls peak. There is some scope to shuffle lower today after the volatile trading seen on Friday, with initial support noted at the 1.9025-1.9000 area. Note that the CFTC data showed that as of Tuesday, August 1st, the net long position held by non-commercial or speculative accounts in CME GBP futures was up by a massive 22,344 to a record high of 45,003. That was two days prior to the Bank of England’s surprise rate hike and this extreme long position could be a constraint on further GBP gains in the short term.

The UK production figures for June may also act as a slight drag on the GBP. Industrial production dipped 0.1% in June, due to maintenance work in the oil and gas sector and the hosepipe ban in parts of the SE, which reduced water output. Manufacturing output rose 0.1% in June, not spectacular growth but at least it was growth. However, the ONS said that, other things being equal, the new figures would only shave 0.02 percentage points off Q2 GDP.

Sweden – Q2 GDP came in stronger than expected, up 1.4% on Q1 and 5.5% y/y, which will underpin expectations of further Riksbank tightening. Household consumption expenditures rose by 3.2%, while gross fixed capital formation was up 7.9%. Exports increased by 7.1% and imports by 6.5%. Swedish growth is currently the strongest in the western world! The SEK firmed in the wake of the report and a turn through 9.1750 back towards the 9.1325 July 7 low looks increasingly likely.

Norway – June manufacturing output was in line with expectations, easing lower by 0.3%, seeing some payback after a surprisingly strong 4.2% rise in May. Attention should turn to CPI, unemployment and retail sales all due later in the week.

Australia – Australian newspaper job advertisements fell 1.2% percent in July to an average 19,925 per week, down 3.4% y/y. However, internet job advertising rose 2.2% in July, to average 166,494 per week, up 1.8% y/y. The official labour force report is due on Thursday, the June report showed a surprise jump in employment of 52,000. The AUD-USD is still hovering near 0.7675-0.7700, with little success in breaking through on good news. Risk is on a break towards the 0.7800 zone and potentially 0.8000, while Friday’s 0.7585 low marks clear support.
06.15 EDT Monday August 7 2006DT Wednesday June 8 2005

Day Ahead
US – June consumer credit is the only data of note from the US today. The May report showed that consumer credit outstanding rose $4.4bn to a record $2.174trln, as revolving debt jumped $6.7bn.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

TU Current account (Jun) from today -$2.4bn
US Consumer credit (Jun) 15.00 +$4.0bn
Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Labour cost (Q2) q/q +0.6% +0.7%
AU ANZ job ads (Jul) m/m -1.2% -3.2% last
CH Unemployment rate (Jul, sa) 3.1% 3.3%
SE GDP (Q2) q/q +1.4% +1.1%
NO Manu output (Jun) m/m -0.3% -0.3%
GB Ind prod (Jun) m/m -0.1% +0.2%
GB Manu output (Jun) m/m +0.1% +0.2%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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