Monday August 7, 2006 - 13:57:18 GMT
Share This Story
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/
Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. EditionKey Points
â€˘ USD taking back some lost ground, after Fridayâ€™s pummellingâ€¦
â€˘ Mainly second tier data today, US consumer credit due.
â€˘ UK industrial production data came in softer than expected, while Swedish GDP was better than forecast lifting the SEK.
consolidated lower in early London trading, with the USD clawing back some lost ground. Activity is likely to be slow today as the market waits for the FOMC decision and statement on Tuesday. The key barrier to further USD losses remains at the $1.2950/1.30 zone. A break there could perceivably see a tussle between momentum sellers (attracted by the new lows) versus USD hedgers who would likely perceive these levels as attractive rates for their medium term positioning needs. The $1.2835 level is likely to offer support for EUR pullbacks on the day, with that key to hold to keep Fridayâ€™s $1.2775 low out of reach.
is holding fairly flat at around 1.9050 now, off the 1.9130 post-payrolls peak. There is some scope to shuffle lower today after the volatile trading seen on Friday, with initial support noted at the 1.9025-1.9000 area. Note that the CFTC data showed that as of Tuesday, August 1st, the net long position held by non-commercial or speculative accounts in CME GBP futures was up by a massive 22,344 to a record high of 45,003. That was two days prior to the Bank of Englandâ€™s surprise rate hike and this extreme long position could be a constraint on further GBP gains in the short term.
The UK production figures for June may also act as a slight drag on the GBP. Industrial production dipped 0.1% in June, due to maintenance work in the oil and gas sector and the hosepipe ban in parts of the SE, which reduced water output. Manufacturing output rose 0.1% in June, not spectacular growth but at least it was growth. However, the ONS said that, other things being equal, the new figures would only shave 0.02 percentage points off Q2 GDP.
Q2 GDP came in stronger than expected, up 1.4% on Q1 and 5.5% y/y, which will underpin expectations of further Riksbank tightening. Household consumption expenditures rose by 3.2%, while gross fixed capital formation was up 7.9%. Exports increased by 7.1% and imports by 6.5%. Swedish growth is currently the strongest in the western world! The SEK firmed in the wake of the report and a turn through 9.1750 back towards the 9.1325 July 7 low looks increasingly likely.
June manufacturing output was in line with expectations, easing lower by 0.3%, seeing some payback after a surprisingly strong 4.2% rise in May. Attention should turn to CPI, unemployment and retail sales all due later in the week.
Australian newspaper job advertisements fell 1.2% percent in July to an average 19,925 per week, down 3.4% y/y. However, internet job advertising rose 2.2% in July, to average 166,494 per week, up 1.8% y/y. The official labour force report is due on Thursday, the June report showed a surprise jump in employment of 52,000. The AUD-USD
is still hovering near 0.7675-0.7700, with little success in breaking through on good news. Risk is on a break towards the 0.7800 zone and potentially 0.8000, while Fridayâ€™s 0.7585 low marks clear support.
06.15 EDT Monday August 7 2006DT Wednesday June 8 2005
June consumer credit is the only data of note from the US today. The May report showed that consumer credit outstanding rose $4.4bn to a record $2.174trln, as revolving debt jumped $6.7bn.
Data/event EDT Consensus*
TU Current account (Jun) from today -$2.4bn
US Consumer credit (Jun) 15.00 +$4.0bn
Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Labour cost (Q2) q/q +0.6% +0.7%
AU ANZ job ads (Jul) m/m -1.2% -3.2% last
CH Unemployment rate (Jul, sa) 3.1% 3.3%
SE GDP (Q2) q/q +1.4% +1.1%
NO Manu output (Jun) m/m -0.3% -0.3%
GB Ind prod (Jun) m/m -0.1% +0.2%
GB Manu output (Jun) m/m +0.1% +0.2%
* Consensus unless stated
ď›™2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."