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Tuesday August 8, 2006 - 08:49:03 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar little rise up on Monday
Yesterdays News and Events:
Dollar is still near its two-month lows against major currencies and even recovered a little on Monday, supported by traders betting against the view that the Federal Reserve may soon end its credit tightening campaign. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.25 percent after its today policy meeting. Also, latest hot readings of inflation keep the dollar well supported. Eurusd traded down from 1.2891 to 1.2806 range. Gbpusd made similar move between 1.9115 and 1.9035 range. Usdjpy had a different story trading from 114.24 to 115.25 as Japanese investors were buying dollars ahead of Wednesdayâ€™s auction of $13 billion of 10 years Treasury notes.
Todays Key Issues:
This morning, German June Industrial Production expected 5.1% YoY (previous 5.9%) and 0.2% vs 1.5% MoM. US 2nd quarter Nonfarm Productivity expected 0.9% vs 3.7% and Unit Labor Costs 2nd quarter at 3.6% vs 1.6%. Last but not least, FOMC Rate Decision; consensus 5.25% unchanged.
The Risk Today:
With a US rates pause largely priced in, the market is vulnerable to a sudden burst of strength in the dollar if the Fed will issue a hawkish statement and leave the door open for more hikes by the end of the year. But a small minority even sees the risk of the Fed lifting rates to 5.5 percent, with core inflation running above the central bankâ€™s perceived comfort zone.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2982 K ||1.9300 K ||115.80 M ||1.2450 T |
|1.2950 T ||1.9195 S ||115.60 S ||1.2420 S |
|1.2920 M ||1.9110 T ||115.30 K ||1.2350 M |
|1.2875 ||1.9050 ||115.20 ||1.2270 |
|1.2825 S ||1.8950 K ||114.65 S ||1.2220 M |
|1.2745 M ||1.8850 M ||114.00 K ||1.2200 S |
|1.2700 T ||1.8740 S ||113.50 K ||1.2186 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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