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Wednesday August 9, 2006 - 09:26:09 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
The Fed left interest rates on hold at 5.25%
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Fed decided Tuesday to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25%, marking the first pause in a two-year string of non-stop increase. They also left the door open to more credit tightening if price pressures persist. In a statement accompanying its decision, the US central bank said that while it expects inflation to ease over time there are still some inflationary risks. The Fed added that â€œthe extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the performance of economic data. In first reaction Eurusd went up to 1.2890 but close the day at lowest 1.2768 on profit taking. Similar scenario for Gbpusd which was holding 1.9080 during announcement made a weekly high 1.9140 and eased later to 1.8974 low. UsdJpy, US investment banks and hedge funds bought dollars against yen, sending it to a high of 115.75. Thatâ€™s the dollarâ€™s strongest level since 28th July, 116. Forex traders will now turn to the US data calendar for the remainder of the week, which on the whole could be supportive of the dollar. In latest pool consensus, only few are expecting a rate increase at September next meeting.
Todays Key Issues:
GB June Trade Balance is expected between Â£ -6,5B to -5,9B versus Â£-6,7B. US June Wholesale inventories are expected to raise 0.6% versus 0.8%. US trade balance is due Thursday and US retail Sales are due Friday.
The Risk Today:
A mainly bullish tone is set for today. Gbp and Eur are already recovering against Dollar today. We could test again Gbpusd high 1.9140 and brake up to 1.9217 and therefore 1.9326. Support is holding 1.9015. If lower, it will push down to 1.8975 (yesterday low). Eurusd is searching for weekly highest 1.2902. If broke up, it will open the way to 1.2934 (2006 highest). UsdJpy is actually acting by itself and could easily test 117.84 last month high. Strong support is holding 114.25. Intraday 114.95 should hold for the day.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2982 K ||1.9300 K ||115.80 M ||1.2450 T |
|1.2950 T ||1.9195 S ||115.60 S ||1.2420 S |
|1.2920 M ||1.9110 T ||115.30 K ||1.2350 M |
|1.2870 ||1.9080 ||115.15 ||1.2230 |
|1.2825 S ||1.8950 K ||114.65 S ||1.2220 M |
|1.2745 M ||1.8850 M ||114.00 K ||1.2200 S |
|1.2700 T ||1.8740 S ||113.50 K ||1.2186 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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