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Friday August 11, 2006 - 09:02:58 GMT
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Dollar gains in technical rebound and US trade deficit revised up



Yesterdays News and Events:


The dollar rose on Thursday as dealers who had bet against the US currency in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision earlier in the week to hold interest rates steady liquidated their positions. The euro failure to break above recent highs after the Fed decision on Tuesday was mostly viewed as the main trigger for forex traders to close short dollar positions and wait for better levels. Late in the afternoon the Eurusd went down to 1.2750 after quoting high 1.2904 early this morning. Gbp fell in European trade time after British police said they had thwarted a plot to blow up trans-atlantic flights. The Gbpusd move did continue in us session breaking 1.8950 support down to 1.8868. Intraday high was 1.9082 but didn’t hold on profit taking sales. For the records, Gbpusd made a 15 month high above 1.91 early this week. UsdJpy did hold support at 114.65 (yesterday low) and went test 115.80 major resistance early this morning. With US interest rates now on hold and ECB and BoE seen pushing rates higher, the Dollar stands to lose the yield advantage that has lent support in the past. But the Dollar against the Yen has remained fairly resilient due in part to the greenback’s wide yield advantage over Japanese instruments. The bank of Japan kept rates steady at 0.25 percent in today Policy meeting. The US trade deficit actually improved slightly in June, falling to $64.8bn from $65bn in May. However, May has been revised up from previously estimated $63.8bn to $65bn.


Todays Key Issues:

US July Export and Import prices are due respectively 0.30% vs 0.80% and 0.80% vs 0.10%. US July Retail sales consensus is 0.80% vs -0.10%. Business Inventories is expected 0.50% vs 0.80%.

The Risk Today:

There is high possibility for further profit taking in European currencies. If Dollar rises again; Eurusd could break down 1.2745 strong support and will test 1.2700 and 1.2660 supports. Consolidation lower than 1.2745 will reinforce the idea of a new Dollar bullish trend. Gbpusd 1.8950 key level is shacked by dollar strong tone. We can hope for consolidation at this level, any news can push Gbpusd lower than 1.8850 and therefore 1.8740 strong support. UsdJpy is now testing 115.80 major resistance; are we looking for 116.40 intraday target?


 

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