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Monday August 14, 2006 - 10:00:32 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar ends the week high
Yesterdays News and Events:
Despite the FED decision to leave interest rates unchanged last week, the US Dollar ended the week at the high. Boosted by strong Retail Sales, the EURUSD dropped to 1.2715, Cable traded as low as 1.8895.
The Currency Markets showed a lot of activity this morning, EURUSD was initially bid up to as high as 1.2760 after some Dollar long positions were liquidated, the rally did not last and the pair is back at its support at 1.2715. Cable which has been kept in a tight 50-pip band for the last 48 hours remains vulnerable to the downside, next strong support lies at 1.8820.
USDJPY has reached a new high this morning. After double-topping the 116.45 level late last week, its third try at the level has given way and the pair rose to 116.65 so far.
Todays Key Issues:
UK July PPI data is due at 8.30GMT. PPI Input ought to slow to 8.6% growth from 10.9% last month, PPI Output is expected to slow to 2.7% from 2.9% in June. Euroland 2nd Quarter GDP flash estimate is due at 9amGMT. Expectations are for a good 2.3% GDP growth, up from 2% in Q1.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: 1.2700 is strong support here this morning, for the daily close the 1.2670 level will be key. While we hold, we prefer to establish some Euro long position, expecting the Dollar to loose some of the value it has gained late last week.
4-H GBPUSD: The pair has been stalling near the 23% initial retracement, risk to descend more is large. Bullish trend-line is a touch lower, a clear break at 1.89 should trigger a fall to 1.8820 and may yield as low as 1.8770 intra-day. Hold a bearish outlook unless the 1.90 level is broken to the upside.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2860 S ||1.9060 M ||117.40 K ||1.2550 K |
|1.2810 K ||1.9000 P ||117.00 M ||1.2470 S |
|1.2760 S ||1.8945 S ||116.70 S ||1.2430 S |
|1.2725 ||1.8905 ||116.55 ||1.2415 |
|1.2710 S ||1.8895 S ||116.40 M ||1.2365 S |
|1.2670 K ||1.8820 T ||116.15 S ||1.2300 S |
|1.2635 M ||1.8770 S ||115.60 K ||1.2260 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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