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Tuesday August 15, 2006 - 08:23:05 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar remains vulnerable
Yesterdays News and Events:
The week started very calm. In the absence of US data releases, most currencies traded in very narrow ranges, USDCHF remained in a 25-pip range for most of the day, EURUSD survived several attempts at the 1.2700 level, in Tokyo it briefly traded at 1.2695 before rallying to the days top at 1.2740. The preliminary estimate of Euroland GDP growth in Q2 reached 2.4%, confirming analystsâ€™ expectations that economic recovery remains on track for 2006. The UKâ€™s PPI data was a tad higher than expected, initially pushing through 1.89 to 1.8845 as investors felt that the BOE was falling behind, not hiking fast enough despite its resent rate hike.
USDJPY was sidelined, still the Dollar managed to rise through its 116.45 double-top, as EURJPY and GBPJPY continue to attract buyers. Looking at those respective medium-term charts we expect EURJPY to scratch the 150 level and then run out, GBPJPY should top out near 225.
Todays Key Issues:
UK July CPI data will be of interest in the morning, forecast look for a 0.1% drop and reduced YoY rise of 2.4%. Plenty of US data could knock around Currencies in the afternoon: July PPI data (0.3% rise vs. 0.5% June) is due at 12.30GMT together with the FEDâ€™s August Empire State Index (14 vs. 15.6 July). June TIC Flows at 1pmGMT should show an unchanged appetite by Foreign Investors to acquire US dept ($69.1Bln vs. $69.6Bln May). Finally the US August Housing Market Index will be released at 5pm, it is forecast to shed 1 point to 38.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: With 1.2695 low overnight the past three weeks rise has been corrected by 50%. 1.2700 remains strong support, the 62% level at 1.2645 is key support, while it hold we will advocate a rise. Look to buy any short-term Euro dips, a rise through 1.2745 should see us test the old support-line at 1.2810.
Daily USDCHF: Resistance at 1.2435 is substantial and while range-trading continues, odds for a new fall to 1.2300 or key 1.2260 seem to outweigh the risk of a new test of the 1.2570 key resistance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2900 S ||1.9130 S ||117.35 K ||1.2565 K |
|1.2810 P ||1.9000 P ||117.00 M ||1.2470 S |
|1.2760 S ||1.8945 S ||116.75 M ||1.2435 S |
|1.2735 ||1.8905 ||116.50 ||1.2405 |
|1.2720 M ||1.8885 M ||116.35 M ||1.2365 S |
|1.2700 S ||1.8835 T ||116.00 S ||1.2300 S |
|1.2645 K ||1.8770 S ||115.50 K ||1.2260 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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John M. Bland, MBA
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