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Friday July 23, 2004 - 01:05:47 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 23rd July 2004

Price 109.75

Resistance: 109.95 ... 110.30 ... 110.60 ... 110.90
Support....: 109.60 ... 109.25 ... 108.90 ... 108.60

Bias: Bullish to 110.65-95 before a further pullback

Bullish: Although 109.55 broke we still saw price remain well above the 108.80 support with a low seen at 109.25. We feel that this formed the corrective low and we should soon see a break above 109.95 to take price to 110.30 which may hold on first test. However, while 109.50-80 holds any reracement we look for an eventual test of 110.60 minimum and most likely to 110.95 where we expect a cap to form and prompt a pullback. Further resistance is at 111.10 and 111.46.

Bearish: We feel the low at 109.25 was probably the extreme for this correction. Thus only a break back below 109.25-30 would generate a spike down to 108.80 before a rally develops. A break of 108.75-85 would be more bearish and provoke losses down to 108.30 once again.

Elliott Wave Comments:

July 15th

While we have seen break of the 109.70 level this should have implied strong follow-through in Wave [c] of Wave [iii]. However, this has not (yet) occurred and until then we need to be aware of the fact that wave equality of Wave [i] from the Wave [ii] low at 107.53 lies at 110.10 and internally within that rally at 110.30. Thus this 110.10-30 area needs to break to retain the directly bullish interpretation. While 110.10-30 holds and a break is seen below 109.50-75 it would imply that the labeling of Wave[i] and Wave[ii] should be replaced by Wave a and Wave b with an anticipated peak at 110.10-30 being Wave c to complete Wave [i] higher. Retracement levels for the new Wave[ii] would then imply support emerging around 108.20-50.

July 22nd

The rally to 110.30 looks to have confirmed the break higher. We have two possible structures, not too different from each other, the first labelling the first peak at 109.57 as Wave [i] and the 107.53 low as Wave [ii] while the second count which, given the move to 108.08 we tend more to favor, labels the 110.02 high as Wave (i) and the 108.08 low as Wave (ii). Either way we will expect further gains quite soon that should at least test the 111.45-96 peaks and we feel a little further. Be aware that any aggressive rally could take price as high as 114.30 in Wave [iii].

(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

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