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Wednesday August 16, 2006 - 09:45:27 GMT
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Range trading continues
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar was sold on Tuesday after US July PPI data showed a much slower than expected 0.1% increase only, supporting the FED decision from last week to leave interest rates unchanged. The August FED Empire Manufacturing Index added more reasons to sell Dollars, it fell to 10.34 from an upwardly revised 16.58 in July and finally the NAHB Housing Market Index was reported at 32, this is the lowest reading since February of 1991. True to Cables volatile nature, Currency Traders got the largest intra-day movement in that pair, it rose to 1.8985, stopping its rise ahead of the psychological 1.90 level. EURUSD rose a full cent from its 1.2700 low to top at 1.2805, meanwhile USDCHF stubbornly stuck to its neutral trading range around 1.24.
USDJPY mirrored the Dollar selling falling to a low of 115.85 for now. Since then the 116.10 area has resisted any attempts to the upside and we expect to see a follow-on movement lower to reach 115.20 by tonight.
Todays Key Issues:
The BOE released minutes of its latest MPC meeting this morning. It voted 6:1 in favor of a rate hike, attempting to get CPI back on its medium-term target. MPC members see limited risk of slowing consumption while inflation outlook remains unclear. US July CPI at 12.30GMT should increase 0.4% (0.2% June), core CPI is expected up 0.2% (0.3%). July Housing Starts due at the same time ought to maintain a level of 1.8m, down a touch from 1.85 in June. At 1.15pmGMT US July Industrial Production is thought to slow to a 0.4% increase (0.8%) and Capacity Utilization should hold above 82.4.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: 1.2815 is Pivot resistance for a move to 1.2930 and higher, while this resistance holds, we risk short-term Dollar strength that could drive the pair back to 1.2745 strong support, 1.2700 and 1.2670 remain key levels and the place we suggest to enter strategic long positions.
4-H GBPUSD: 1-month bullish trend has caught up with the market, it lies at 1.8885. While we hold this level, there is immediate upside potential for a new attack of the 1.8980 level. Expect this to eventually give way and see the pair ascending to 1.9130, medium-term target is the 1.93 level.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2910 S ||1.9130 S ||117.35 K ||1.2565 K |
|1.2860 M ||1.9000 P ||116.75 S ||1.2470 S |
|1.2815 P ||1.8950 M ||116.30 S ||1.2435 S |
|1.2785 ||1.8930 ||116.05 ||1.2360 |
|1.2775 M ||1.8885 T ||115.85 M ||1.2345 M |
|1.2745 S ||1.8850 M ||115.50 S ||1.2300 S |
|1.2700 S ||1.8800 S ||115.20 M ||1.2260 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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