Thursday August 17, 2006 - 07:11:21 GMT
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Daily Technicals: Dollar can fall further
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: The pair trades an important 50 pips higher today, short-term bullish trend-line at 1.2830 this morning, remain long Euro while we hold above it. Initial resistance 1.2865, stronger at 1.2900 and an outlook that the 1.30 level will be attacked soon. Allow for an intra-day dip to now lower than 1.2810, else a return into the mid 1.27â€™s lies on hand.
GBPUSD: Cable temporarily breeched the 1.90 level but was unable to close the day above 1.8970. We see this set-back as an opportunity to (re-)enter GBP long positions, with 1-month bullish trend-line at 1.8920 as the underlying support. Strong resistance 1.9025, bypassing that leaves space for 1.9130 in the short-term. More support at 1.8885 and 1.8850, a lower daily close risks a fall to 1.8620.
USDJPY: The Dollars low was stretched a bit, it reached 115.50 in Tokyo this morning, progress from here is difficult as medium-term bullish trend-line has reached 115.40, in the short-term a new rebound towards 116 seems likely. Should the pair fall through 115.40 it may dip to 115.15 in the short-term, a low daily close will call for further dip to 114.65 key level. On top minor resistance 115.70, strong 116.05 and more at 116.35.
USDCHF: It was the downside that was tested yesterday, so far the 1.2260 key support did a great job in preserving the Dollar. Threat of a break and fall to 1.20 is not yet over, while underneath of 1.2310 the pair is bearish in the short-term and could advance to 1.2220 or as low as 1.2195 later on today. A rise back through the 1.2310 pivot has space to 1.2340 intra-day, a higher daily close ends the pressure on the Dollar and weâ€™ll be back in neutral range.
@08:30GMT UK Retail sales July
@09:00GMT Euroland CPI July
@12:30GMT US Weekly Jobless Claims
@14:00GMT US Leading Indicator July
@16:00GMT US Philadelphia FED Survey
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