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Friday August 18, 2006 - 09:03:35 GMT
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US Economic Conditions better than feared?
Yesterdays News and Events:
Thursday started with a continuation of the Currencies rise against the US Dollar. While EURUSD managed a fresh high of 1.2885 for this week, Cable topped short of Wednesday high and returned to breech the bullish trend-line before NY markets opened and markets waited for data releases. It was the Philadelphia FED Index that surprised, the report said that business conditions in the mid-west have improved a lot more than expected, raising to 18.5 from 6, the highest level in more than one year. Naturally the Dollar rallied, but it was only after European traders had left that Cable was able to fall through .8910 to trigger stop-loss selling order all the way down to 1.8820. EURUSD followed with a dip to 1.2815, USDCHF rallied 1 cent to 1.2360.
Dallas President Fisher countered recent talk that the FED may be done rising rates with a hawkish speech at a community lunch. He said that inflation â€˜cannot be let out of the bagâ€™ and that the FED would not be inhibited to raise rates again. On the rise of energy prices he said it added pressure to increase efficiencies, at the same time it was unclear how much of the recent rise was due solely to speculative trading, giving hope that the black goldâ€™s price could easy in coming months.
USDJPY followed the Dollars spike to rise to return to 116.00. This leaves medium-term bullish trend-line intact, it has reached 115.50 this morning. BOJ Governor Fukui with a very diplomatic comment, said that monetary policy is likely to remain loose without incurring inflation risks, which means that yes, the BOJ will continue to hike, even if it will be at a very slow pace.
Todays Key Issues:
Only important data today will be the August preliminary of the U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The Index stood at 84.7 in July, expectations are for a slightly weaker 84, but after yesterdays strong Philly Index, any positive surprise on Michigan could strongly support the Dollar to end the week at the high end of the current ranges.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: While the short-term bullish trend was broken, EURUSD has so far only fallen to 1.2815, pivot level for the day. While above, the pair could again climb to the 1.2885/1.2910 area, a high close is bullish to bypass those levels and challenge the 1.30 mark early next week. To the downside we risk to advance to at least 1.2770, 1.2740 seems likely, from where a test of the 1.2670 key support would be expected.
4-H GBPUSD: Bullish rising trend was broken midday on Thursday, the pair is now in a slowly falling channel between 1.8765 and 1.8965. We will only return to an immediate bullish outlook is Cable can bypass 1.90 and close the week high, at current levels it looks like we risk a return to at least 1.8650 key support next week.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2900 P ||1.9010 K ||116.60 K ||1.2435 S |
|1.2865 S ||1.8905 P ||116.30 M ||1.2360 S |
|1.2845 M ||1.8885 S ||116.05 S ||1.2325 M |
|1.2835 ||1.8840 ||116.00 ||1.2315 |
|1.2815 S ||1.8820 S ||115.50 S ||1.2290 M |
|1.2775 M ||1.8765 M ||115.15 M ||1.2260 K |
|1.2740 S ||1.8660 K ||114.65 K ||1.2200 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
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Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan
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Mon 25 Dec
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