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Monday August 21, 2006 - 09:17:50 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Risks to see Dollar lower this week
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Currencies markets traded in fairly narrow ranges on Friday. The Dollar was able to hang on to its gains in the early stages, pushing for a Euro low of 1.2810 and 1.8790 against the British Pound. Then a disappointing U. Michigan Consumer Survey, the index dropped to 78.7 in August from 84.7 in July, tuned the intra-day mood and Dollar short-term Dollar longs were closed ahead of the weekend.
Currencies opened very bid on Monday in Asia, by the time Europe entered the market, EURUSD had traded at 1.2885 and Cable reached 1.8885. This could be the reaction to a still very shaky peace-plan in Lebanon which have also driven Oil prices higher this morning. Regardless of the reasons, European Currencies continued to trade higher, Cable now stands at 1.8940, EURUSD is currently triple-topping 1.2905 in August and even USDCHF is threatening to finally break its 1.2260 key level.
USDJPY was sold, with a low of 115.35 so far, it is lagging its European counterparts. This is a critical level, closing the day beyond medium-term support of 115.50 should trigger a sell-off in the days to come.
Todays Key Issues:
Euroloand June Trade Balance at 9am GMT is the only data today. Expectations are for a slight increase of the deficit to â‚¬3.Bln from â‚¬0.9Bln in May.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: It has traded at 1.2905, this is the third time this August that the pair has reached such high level. There is no such thing as a triple-top in charting, the pair must therefore stretch this high slightly further, next resistance 1.2930, stronger at 1.2960, a close above will see us cross the 1.30 handle next.
4-H GBPUSD: Strong rise in Cable this morning is nearing strong resistance level 1.8960/1.9000. This is key resistance early this week, bypassing this with a high daily close should see us advance towards 1.93 next. For now these strong resistance levels are still in place and short-term traders may be better of reducing long-positions, re-entering in case of a pullback to 1.8885 strong initial support.
Daily USDCHF: The 1.2260 key support is under threat. A daily close underneath should trigger a sell-off down to 1.1965. But if the Dollar can be kept sufficiently high, risk is to return to 1.2370.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3000 M ||1.9030 S ||116.60 K ||1.2360 T |
|1.2965 K ||1.9000 M ||116.00 T ||1.2310 S |
|1.2910 S ||1.8960 K ||115.55 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2900 ||1.8940 ||115.40 ||1.2225 |
|1.2885 M ||1.8890 S ||115.15 M ||1.2210 S |
|1.2860 S ||1.8825 M ||114.65 K ||1.2170 S |
|1.2810 T ||1.8760 K ||113.85 S ||1.2060 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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