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Tuesday August 22, 2006 - 14:20:29 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Aug. 22 2006, 13:14 GMT

USD Showing Resiliency

What difference a few hours make. USD regains its legs.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Euro-Zone Current Account (Jun) 4.0B vs. -5.0B
• Euro-Zone Current Account nsa 5.5 vs. -11.9B prior
• GE ZEW Survey Econ Sentiment -5.6 vs 11.4 exp.
• EC Industrial Orders SA MoM -2.5% vs. -0.6%, YoY 5.2% vs. 7.9% exp.
• EC ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Aug) 1.3 vs. 15.0 exp
• GE ZEW Survey Current Conditions (Aug) 33.6 vs. 27.0 exp.
• CA Consumer Prices Index (Jul) MoM 0.1% vs. -0.2% exp., YoY 2.4% vs. 2.0% exp.
• CA CPI Ex COre (Jul) MoM -0.2% vs. -0.3% exp, YoY 1.5% vs. 1.4% exp.
• Market still waiting for Irans response. Iran boards a Romania oil rig adding to tensions.
FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE
• Japanese Convenience Store Sales YoY (Jul) out at -5.2% vs. 0.6% previously.
• Swiss Producer and Import Prices MoM (Jul) out at 0.2% as expected.
• Euro-Zone Trade Balance (Jun) out at 2.0B vs. -1.0B expected.
• Canadian Retail Sales Mom (Jun) out at -0.2% vs. 0.3% expected.
• Japanese All Industry Index (Jun) out at 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected.
• Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM (Jul) out at 2.6% vs. -1.7% previously.
• Japanese Supermarket Sales YoY (Jul) out at -3.2% vs. -2.5% previously.
• Iran defies UN Nuclear offer, forces US towards sanctions.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Richmond Fed exp 10.
Fed Guynn and Moskow speak

EUR
The EUR lost ground against the USD on the back of disappointing ZEW economic sentiment figures, on an afternoon that traders expected the EUR to hold over 1.2900. Markets are buzzing with rumors of large EURUSD sell orders clearing stops towards 1.2805. If true this makes for additional downside risk should Richmond Fed print higher or one of the two Fed presidents speaking this evening, provide tightening indications. The momentum and bullish sentiment the EUR enjoyed this morning seems to be rapidly evaporating. Short traders should watch the 1.2800 lvl very carefully given the thin EuroZone calendar tomorrow.
Geopolitical
• N. Korea said it was considering a pre-emptive strike on S. Korea should the US continue, with plans for joint military training with S. Korea. This risk should keep the JPY under pressure.
• Iran is expected to release their response today to the UN proposal on uranium enrichment. So far all indication point Iran refusing to compromise and avoid the Aug 31st deadline. Iran has threatened to respond to sanction with lower oil production. Risk aversion could be USD supportive.

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
Another slow day on the economic releases front. Traders should be watching technical movements, with an eye on geopolitical events, before reading too much into today’s data.

Watch for Fed's Guynn and Moskow comments 16.40 gmt

EUR
The EUR continued to rally on the back of higher then expected EuroZone Trade Balance and comments from Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who predicted faster economic expansion for the rest of 2006. The EUR looks very bullish.

German Zew Survey looks to be the most interesting release on the docket. This survey of institutional investor’s view of German economic sentiment looks to continue it precipitous decline for a sixth straight month. A reading of 11.4 would show a 3.7 fall on concerns that higher energy cost, rising interest rates and a new VAT tax to be introduced in 2007 will impede economic expansions. This reading will be the lowest since December 2002 and add strength to the theory that German growth has already peaked. While this indicator is forbidding it should only have a minor impact on recent Euro appreciation.
C
AD
Today’s Canadian CPI data could have had real potential if yesterdays retail sales figures had performed. But given the fact that growth seems to be slowing considerably and inflation figures that are well within the BoC tolerance levels, MoM -0.2% CPI will not support a case for additional tightening. That said any positive information from Canada will rally the USD bears and send the USDCAD lower.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2805 @ 13:09 GMT)
EURUSD- Continued to gain on its bull rally from 1.2456 (Jul 19th) reaching 1.2937 but failed to hold in NY. A thin US calendar and bearish USD sentiment will look to retest the 1.2900 for a larger advance to 1.2970 lvl. Failure will find little support before the 1.2770 lvl. We are a buyer on dips to 1.2840
Resist.
1.3126
1.3005
1.2949
1.2805
1.2827
1.2761
1.2640
Support

Quoted:
22 Aug 06
13:09 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8887 @ 13:09 GMT)
GBPUSD- Profit taking sent the pair to 1.8800 were it found fresh legs, ralling to 1.8995 (Aug 21st strong resistance) in NY. In the long term a break above Aug 8ths 1.9140 highs will be needed to see a upside. While a collapse of 1.8800/10 could trigger a fresh round of selling.

Resist.
1.9306
1.9109
1.9025
1.8887
1.8828
1.8716
1.8520
Support

Quoted:
22 Aug 06
13:09 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (116.47 @ 13:09 GMT)
USDJPY- A rash of JPY selling and weak data reversed it bearish range. A close above 116.70 will confirm a return of the Aug 1st bullish trend. lYesterdays, lack of downside momentum could retest 116.10 / 38 lvls. then 116.70 lvls.A break of 115.35 support will confirm short-term bearish bias towards 114.70.

Resist.
116.99
116.36
116.10
116.47
115.47
115.09
114.46
Support

Quoted:
22 Aug 06
13:09 GMT

Risk warning
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Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
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