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Wednesday August 23, 2006 - 09:08:36 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Buy Euros again after yesterdays dip
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
German ZEW slipped into negative territory in August, the Index was reported at -5.6 in August, its lowest level in 5 years and far off from its mean of +35. EURUSD broke through the bullish 2-day trend-line and dipped to a low of 1.2785 before the day ended, other Currency pairs followed: Cable corrected nearly 150 pips from its 1.90 top to 1.8855 and the USDCHF returned to above 1.23, holding on to its neutral range between 1.22 and 1.24. The rally of the Dollar was however stopped shortly before NY markets closed, short-term players took profit causing the EURUSD to end the day in bullish territory above 1.28.
USDJPY traded bid for most of Tuesdayâ€™s trading day, temporarily bypassing the medium-term bearish trend-line at 116.65. Here too, intra-day traders sold Dollars at the end of the day to take profit and the pair closed the day at 116.55, ready to be sold down to 116.10 in Asia.
Todays Key Issues:
It will be another day of technical trading as only little news broadcasts will disturb markets. The US Existing Homes Sales data is due at 3pmGMT, forecasts point to slightly weaker sales of 6.5m units in July, down from 6.62m in June.
The Risk Today:
1-H EURUSD: Tuesdays dip touched the (orange) medium-term rising support, earlier this morning the 2-day bearish trend-line was breeched and the pair retraced to 1.2830. Expectations are bullish, we look for a rise to 1.2880 today, first strong resistance on the way to 1.30. Risk is a fall back underneath of 1.2810 and retry of the medium-term support at 1.2790, a lower daily close puts the bullish view on hold and may cause a short-term dip to 1.2670.
Daily USDCHF: The neutral range is narrowing, 1.2260/1.2385, a breech on either side by the end of the week should set the direction of the overall move in September. Our bias is to the downside, for the stronger (green) trend to hold, hence a fall to 1.1960 is expected to come soon, looking a few weeks ahead we think a push for the 1.13/1.15 area will be seen. To the top a breech at 1.2385 risks 1.2450 in the short-term and 1.27 by mid-september.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2980 K ||1.9130 S ||117.35 S ||1.2425 S |
|1.2885 S ||1.9000 M ||116.65 K ||1.2375 K |
|1.2840 M ||1.8940 K ||116.40 M ||1.2345 M |
|1.2825 ||1.8915 ||116.20 ||1.2320 |
|1.2780 T ||1.8880 M ||115.90 S ||1.2310 M |
|1.2740 S ||1.8855 P ||115.35 M ||1.2260 M |
|1.2700 S ||1.8760 K ||114.65 K ||1.2060 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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John M. Bland, MBA
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