User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday August 23, 2006 - 21:05:47 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Euro Weakens as Drop in Belgian Manufacturing Index Signals Fall in IFO

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-22-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Fate of Dollar Tomorrow is Dependent Upon Which is Weaker - IFO or Durable Goods
• Euro Weakens as Drop in Belgian Manufacturing Index Signals Fall in IFO
• British Pound Strengthens on Better CBI Survey

US Dollar

When it comes to trading currencies, everything boils down to strong versus weak. These three words perfectly characterized the price action that we saw in the currency market today as both US and European economic data fell short of expectations. Yet with data from both countries disappointing, some traders may have had difficulty figuring out who was the weaker of the two. This is where expectations come into play. The only data released from the US were housing related and unsurprisingly – they were bad. Existing home sales in the month of July was the weakest in 2.5 years while the inventory of unsold homes increased to the highest level in 13 years. There is no question that the housing sector is pulling back and both traders and economists have been expecting this for some time. However the pullback in the real estate sector only has meaning when it trickles down to the consumer and so far, even though the slowdown has been occurring for months now, the impact on consumer spending has been minimal. Just two weeks ago, retail sales for the month of July jumped 1.4 percent, the biggest rise in six months. Therefore even though we are worried that a failure to cut back spending now increases the risk of a nasty contraction later, until we actually see consumers react to the slowdown in the housing market, the impact on economic growth remains limited. In contrast, the weakness of the ZEW survey yesterday caught the market completely off guard. Top that off with the drop in the Belgian manufacturing survey reported earlier this morning and chances are that Eurozone data will continue to weaken. Yet tomorrow, whether the US dollar rises or falls will once again depend on who is weaker. The US is projected to report a drop in durable goods in the month of July while the Eurozone is expected to report a drop in the German IFO survey. The country that has the sharper drop will likely be the day’s bigger loser. Meanwhile oil prices continue to move lower which should relieve some of the pressures on the Fed to continue to raise interest rates. Growth is starting to become a problem and the downside risks outweigh the upside. As inflation pressures begin to subside, the central bank only has better reasons to keep rates on hold for the remainder of the year.


The only piece of data reported today from the Eurozone was the Belgian survey of manufacturing activity. Although Belgium is a tiny country, its activity index has a very strong correlation with the business activity survey of the largest country in the Eurozone. In fact, traders and economists have found that it is far more reliable to use the Belgium index instead of the ZEW survey to forecast the outcome of the IFO survey. Therefore the 2 point drop in the Belgian index from 5.6 to 3.3 suggests that the business confidence will also slip in tomorrow’s report, but the drop may not be as dramatic as the 20 point drop that we saw in yesterday’s ZEW survey. The IFO index is generally not as volatile as the ZEW survey and it is coming off of very high levels. Aside from the IFO report, we are also expecting the final second quarter GDP figures from Germany along with import prices. Both are expected to be strong and could offset some of the Euro bearishness from a weak IFO report.

British Pound

The British pound is stronger against both the US dollar and the Euro following an improvement in the CBI manufacturing orders survey. The index increased from -11 to -8, which is the highest level since December 2004. The details of the report are not as encouraging with the expectations component slipping. The rise was primarily due to an increase in price expectations, which was further confirmed by a separate upgrade by RICS of their estimates for price growth. This suggests that the economy is beginning to improve slowly but the improvements have yet to be significant enough to compel the Bank of England to move interest rates. We expect the remainder of the UK data due out this weekend to give a similar signal.

Japanese Yen

The performance of the Japanese Yen was mixed today with the currency gaining strength against the US dollar, Euro and Swiss Franc but weakening against the British pound and Canadian dollar. This is not surprising since the yen crosses have behaved very differently in thin trading as economic data also comes in mixed. The trade surplus for the month of July fell by 0.2 percent while machine tool orders increased by a more than expected 2.2 percent. The biggest news that is impacting the Yen is Treasury Secretary Paulson’s plans to make multiple visits to China this year and next. Many traders believe that Paulson was brought on to convince China to make more meaningful changes to their exchange rate policy. China on the other hand continues to show reluctance. The country’s Minister of Commerce indicates that all they afford is a 3 percent per year climb in the value of the Yuan. Any further rise could put a serious dent in the export sector. Meanwhile the only piece of meaningful data from Japan this week will not come until Thursday night. Consumer prices are slated for release and they have the potential to shed more light on how soon we may see another interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105