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Thursday August 24, 2006 - 09:32:54 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
German Ifo expectations weigh on Euro
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
In slow trading on Wednesday, Currencies markets were confined to small ranges, waiting for the one piece of data in NY morning. US Exisiting Home Sales disappointed, shedding 4.1% the housing markets downturn seems to gather pace. EURUSD spiked to 1.2850 on this news, Cable briefly traded at 1.90, but the bulls joy was very short-lived, the Euro rise stopped as quickly as it had started and markets went the other instead. Overnight the Euro lost further ground, reaching a low of 1.2750, Cable fell to a low of 1.8880, USDCHF moved up to test its bearish medium-term trend-line at 1.2380.
The bearish market overnight could be attributed to the markets expectations for today‚Äôs German IFO Business Climate Index. The data was released a short while ago, the Index fell 0.6 points to 105, it fared better than many had expected, maintaining very high levels overall and the Euro was bought up from 1.2770 to return above 1.2810.
Todays Key Issues:
US Weekly Jobless Claims are due at 12.30GMT, the 4-week average has remained at 310/315k for more than a month, with the new data expected at 315k, this should not change. US July Durable Goods Orders are also due at 12.30, after a strong rise of 2.9% in June it is expected to fall 0.5%.
US July New Home Sales will be closely watched after the poor performance of the existing houses. Expectations are for a slower sales of 1.07m units, down from 1.13m in June.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: A quick dip to 1.2750 was followed by a return into the bullish trend above 1.28. Remain bullish Euro, minor resistance 1.2830 cleared should see it raise to 1.2910, target remains for a shot at 1.30 by Friday.
4-H GBPUSD: The bearish resistance has held again yesterday and remains key level to watch, it will need to close the day above to move on to 1.9130 by Friday night. Supporting the bullish view is that fact that each Cable pull-back has had a higher low, indicating that the pair remains bullish in the medium-term. Minor support 1.8860, a breech risks a deeper sell-off down to 1.8735 max.
Resistance and Support:
|1.2825 M |
|1.8925 S |
|1.8855 P |
|115.30 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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