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Forex Market Update: What A Difference a Few Hours Make...

Published: Aug. 24 2006, 12:20 GMT

What A Difference a Few Hours Make....

Its the EUR's turn to rally, helped by strong IFO figures. Markets waiting for US and JN data.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• GE GDP QoQ 0.9% vs 0.9% exp
• SZ Employment Levels (2Q) 3.651m vs. 3.644m prior
• SW Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.0% vs. 6.2% exp.
• SW PPI (Jul) MoM 0.3% vs. 0.3% exp, yoy 3.7% vs. 3.8% exp
• GE IFO Busines Climate (Aug) 105.0 vs. 104.8 exp., Current Assessment (Aug) 108.6 vs. 108.0 exp, Expectations 101.5 vs. 101.5 exp.
• PD Retail Sales (Jul) MoM 1.0% vs. 2.7% exp, yoy 11.0% vs. 12.3% exp.
FROM THE MONRINGS UPDATE
• UK CBI August Industrial Orders rises to -8 from -11 previously.
• Canadian Leading Indicators MoM (Jul) out at 0.2% as expected.
• US Existing Home Sales (Jul) out at 6.33M vs. 6.55M expected. MoM out at -4.1% vs. -1.2% expected.
• DOE/API Storage figures generally higher than expected.
• NZ Trade Balance (Jul) out at -744M vs. -445M expected.
• Japanese Corp Service Prices YoY (Jul) out at -0.1% vs. 0.0% expected.
• Australian House Prices QoQ (2Q) out at 3.1% vs. 1.2% expected.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• US Data
• Japan CPI releases tonight

NZD
New Zealand’s Trades Balance came in larger then expected rising to -744.7m vs. -450.00m from a revised downward deficit of -191.0m in July. The Kiwi sold off in dramatic fashion on the figures. However deeper inspection show, while imports continued to be pressured by rising oil prices, the larger culprit was the import of a single aircraft. Carve out the aircraft the figure doesn’t look so bad. This realization should support the NZD in the short term. That said we continue to see the Kiwi under pressure on both a technical and fundamental levels. Perhaps the markets have been overzealous in pricing in additional RBNZ hikes given rise to its rapid appreciation. A lack of data (except retail sales) until the RBNZ meets on the 13th of September doesn’t bode well for the currency.

EUR
The EURUSD swings are making me dizzy. On the back of a higher then expected (and rumored) figure the paired rallied back to yesterdays lvls. The Euro bulls breathe a collective sigh as IFO Business Climate dropped to 105.0 vs. 105.6 in June staying above 104.8 estimates. This figure should help to lessen talk of an ECB pause next Thursday policy meeting.
USD

Markets will be paused until Durable Goods and US New Homes Sales. Both notoriously volatile indicators, traders should be ready for anything. With yesterdays poor housing figure and the EUR gaining moment any disappoint reading should benefit USD bears. In addition, a warm July kept buyers away, so our bias is on the lower side of the range for Homes Sales. However in these last days of summer its unlikely any rally will have the support to break out of key ranges. Traders should look to play the highly choppy ranges.

FROM THE MONRINGS UPDATE
Lots of important data in Europe, US and Asia. Should be a busy day.

USD
The greenback continues its spectacular rally on the back of exceptional odds. Perhaps we should call this the currency that could. US Existing House Sales fell dramatically to 6.33M vs. 6.55M exp. and dropping -4.1% vs. -1.2% exp. Despite these dismal figures (which points to a housing market picking up downward momentum) the USD saw a broad based rally in NY through Asia sessions. The verdict is still out whether this reversal was technically based or shift in market sentiment. There are hints that the market is expecting Fed Chairman Bernanke to indicate a willingness to raise rates in the near term at Fridays scheduled Wyoming event. In addition, the weaker ZEW figure has sparked speculation that the ECB will not tighten to 3.50% but pause at 3.25%. We should see continued choppy, directionally trading as markets hypothesize potential scenarios. With a wealth of data being release today in Europe and the US, trading will be from indicator to indicator.

The traders will be paying special attention to Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales (which we beleive will be lower then expected) for indication of a slowing economy.

EUR
With the short term market sentiment turning bearish on the EUR and the important IFO (Aug Business Climate) release this morning, today will provide critical direction for the currency. IFO Business Climate is a survey which measures sentiment in the Europe’s largest economy. Worries over sustained oil prices, ME tensions, and Europe’s and the global economic outlook is expect to weigh on this figure. Tuesday weak ZEW (economic sentiment) printing at a gloomy -5.6 has perhaps foreshadowed further downside risks. The figure is expected to slip to 104.8 from 105.6 prior. Any number above 100 is considered positive. The rapid reversal of the EUR fortune has been based on the theory that slowing growth in the Euro zone should warrant less monetary tightening then expected. Traders should be watching for any indication of growth.


Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2832 @ 12:17 GMT)
EURUSD- After a spike to 1.2850 the pair continued its strong reversal form Monday 1.2940 highs. 1.2760 minor support held in Asia. A close below the 20d MA looks bearish. A break below 1.2720 to confirm ST. Pair still squarely in 2 month bullish trend. Need to break 1.2790 for a retest of 1.2850.
Resist.
1.2960
1.2882
1.2834
1.2832
1.2757
1.2727
1.2649
Support

Quoted:
24 Aug 06
12:17 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8949 @ 12:17 GMT)
GBPUSD- Yesterday broke out of the pairs bearish ST bearish channel and retesting 1.9000 Aug 17th high. Retraced on strong USD momentum. Range Bound 1.8890 / 1.8990 strong resistance.

Resist.
1.9202
1.9067
1.9000
1.8949
1.8865
1.8797
1.8662
Support

Quoted:
24 Aug 06
12:17 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (116.29 @ 12:17 GMT)
USDJPY- Failure to hold momentum above the 116.60 lvls sent the pair down in Asia to 116.11. Range bound 116.02 – 116.85 lvls. Break should provide a longer term direction.

Resist.
117.48
116.93
116.66
116.29
116.11
115.83
115.28
Support

Quoted:
24 Aug 06
12:17 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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