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Friday August 25, 2006 - 08:24:17 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Forex Markets remain range-bound
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Thursday seemed like the perfect day for the Euro to move on to higher grounds, leaving the 1.2650/1.2950 range behind. Support came in form of not so bad German IFO Business Climate Index of 105, down just 0.6 points, faring much better than Wednesdays ZEW. Weak US Durable Goods Orders (-2.4%) and a deeper-then-expected fall in US New Homes Sales fuelled Currencies further, the EURUSD was boosted to 1.2840, Cable reached 1.8985, but no more, when the mood turned and Currencies headed south. By the time NY markets closed, the Euro had lost back all of its daily gains, Cable closed at 1.8880, USDCHF ended the day above its medium-term resistance of 1.2380.
Japans core CPI rose 0.2% in July from a year ago, raising talk about possible BOJ rate hikes. Market expectations are for interest rates to be lifted to 0.5% from the present 0.3% rate by the end of March 2007. Japanese Government Spokesman Abe was quick to counter speculation about possible rate hikes when he said that he would like the BOJâ€™s help in making economic recovery sustainable. The Yen was unimpressed as it continued to loose ground against the US Dollar, reaching a high of 117.25 so far.
Todays Key Issues:
UK 2nd Quarter GDP data is due at 8.30GMT. The data that was earlier reported to have grown 0.7% from the 1st Quarter is expected to be revised up to 0.8% quarterly growth, or 2.6% annually.
The Risk Today:
1-H EURUSD: We have again closed a day underneath of the medium-tem support at 1.2810, for the week, a short-term bearish trend can be drawn with resistance at 1.2810 this morning. While underneath, risk is for further descent, 1.2700 could be reached, key support at 1.2660 may be tested early next week. For now our bullish outlook takes a back-seat, only a piercing rise through 1.2820 would change that, in which case weâ€™d expect an increase in momentum to drive the pair to its 1.2960 key resistance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2910 S ||1.9000 S ||118.00 S ||1.2570 K |
|1.2850 M ||1.8920 T ||117.70 S ||1.2470 S |
|1.2810 S ||1.8885 M ||117.30 K ||1.2415 S |
|1.2775 ||1.8855 ||117.10 ||1.2375 |
|1.2740 S ||1.8825 M ||116.90 T ||1.2370 S |
|1.2700 S ||1.8770 S ||116.60 S ||1.2310 M |
|1.2670 K ||1.8660 K ||116.15 K ||1.2260 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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