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Monday August 28, 2006 - 06:38:37 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Yen hits record low against euro on rate outlook
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The yen fell across the board late last week after a narrow-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price index reinforced views that Japanese interest rates will climb only gradually. The BOJ raised the overnight call rate in July for the first time in six years but said the pace of further rate tightening would be slow. Friday the Eurusd was little changed at 1.2760 after dipping as low as 1.2724 earlier after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talked clearly of US economy and Fed policy. Eurusd moved in 30 pips either side of 1.2755 but finished the Friday session flat. Low was 1.2726 and high was 1.2784 as much of the participants closed there position in front of the week end. Gbpusd maintains a sideways motion in the small trading between 1.8970 and 1.8837.
Todays Key Issues:
Most of FX dealers will be quiet today as London market is closed for public holiday. The marketâ€™s attention is likely to shift back to the dollar and euro as many important economic events are scheduled in the United States and Europe later this week. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold this week.
The Risk Today:
This morning the yen hit a fresh record low again euro, with expectations that the bank of Japan will take its time raising interest rates. The eurjpy climbed as high as 149.89 early this morning, the highest since the single European currencyâ€™s launch in 1999. The market is focusing on whether the euro will rise above the psychologically important 150 yen level. It is possible the eurjpy will rise above 150 level, but it is likely to face large profit taking. The eurusd remains vulnerable, having tested 1.2745 support; it would take a recovery beyond 1.2940. Further to last week bearish mood, targeting trendline support is 1.2700. A break here would be significant and would expose 1.2660 and 1.2550. Usdjpy, having cleared both 116.84 and 116.95 (76,4% retracement of the 117.87 â€“ 113.99 decline), targets now resistance 117.87.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 T ||1.9195 S ||118.70 T ||1.2595 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.9110 T ||117.90 S ||1.2450 T |
|1.2842 M ||1.8950 K ||117.42 M ||1.2420 M |
|1.2800 ||1.8912 ||117.09 ||1.2363 |
|1.2745 S ||1.8850 M ||116.84 M ||1.2350 M |
|1.2700 S ||1.8740 S ||114.65 S ||1.2200 S |
|1.2660 M ||1.8540 K ||114.00 K ||1.2186 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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