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Monday August 28, 2006 - 15:28:51 GMT
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Forex Market Update: Calm Before the Storm (afternoon addition)

Published: Aug. 28 2006, 13:19 GMT

Calm Before the Storm (afternoon addition)

A light economic calendar today will provide traders the opportunity to position themselves for a critical week of data and events.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Eur-Zone M3 sa (Jul) yoy 7.8% vs. 8.2% exp., 3mth ave. 8.3% vs. 8.5% exp.
• Hungary Base Rate rose .50% to 7.25% above markets .25% expected hike.
FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE
• Norwegian AKU Unemployment Rate (Jun) out at 3.2% vs. 3.4% expected.
• UK GDP QoQ (2Q P) out at 0.8% as expected.
• German CPI figures generally as expected (relatively low)
• Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Conference: Some talk about global, economic integration. Risks to the economic geography would be terror and protectionism. Guynn disappointed that some analysts believed that the Fed would tolerate higher long-term inflation. STIR futures pricing in a 37% chance of 5.5% by year-end. Noone ruled out an additional hike.
• UK closed today.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Japan Jobless Rate (23:30gmt)

As expected, the markets stayed in a very tight range as traders built positions in front of this weeks data releases and event calendar.

Sweden- SEK
Looking forward, tomorrows Swedish Retail Sales should provide a strong argument for SEK appreciation. We expect July figures to print (mom) 0.3% up from 0.2% and yoy 7.7% up from 7.4% prior month. This will represent the eleventh straight increase for the accelerating economy. Consumer spending which supports 50% of GDP continued to increase while unemployment unexpectedly drop to 6.0% in July helping fuel growing consumer confidence. Overall, all economic cylinders are clicking for the $340b economy with GDP rising to yoy 5.5% and the Riksbank expected to rise rate .25% to 2.50% on Wednesday. We view the mid-long term fundamentals and prospects to be excellent and continued appreciation highly likely.

FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE
JPY
Poor start to the week as the yen continued its weak trading pattern in Asia session. In recent sessions Japan has come under considerable pressure as the coutries overall outlook shifts. Fridays lower then expected CPI reading provided the “no hike” in 2006 with greater credibility and policy makers were quick to provide verbal confirmation. In anticipation of further rate hikes by the BoJ, markets unwound their carry position providing the Yen with broad based strength. However, with fear of a hike reduced and growth bearish market sentiment, traders have renewed their affinity for the Yen as the funding currency of choice. We see evidence of the return of the carry trade by the rapid appreciation in the EURJPY and GBPJPY. In addition questions regarding Japans economic health and concern regarding the September 22 elections have begun to weigh on the currency. This week trader will be watching Retail Trade (Tues.) and Industrial Production (Wed) to gauge the relative position of the Japanese economy.

NZD
The Kiwi is still showing the effects of Thursday’s weaker then expected trade balance. This week’s light economic calendar will have to outperform forecasts to keep the NZD from falling further. Any decline in NBZN Business Confidence or Building Permits will be taken very poorly by the market and we would expect to see considerable selling. Overall the .25% rate hike on the 13th of September (we should see a move to 7.50% from 7.25%) has been priced into the Kiwi so a reversal in bearish market sentiment will depend on hawkish tone from the RBNZ and acceleration of inflation and growth. Right now this combination will be a tall order, so we expect additional downside risk.

UK
The UK has a Bank Holiday.

US
No economic releases.

The much anticipated Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Wyoming speech on “Global Economic Integration” turned into a nonevent. He stuck to the subject a hand and didn’t deviate into the US economy and monetary policy as many had hoped. USD bull initially rallied to 1.2720/30 on the belief that a lack of comment on additional hikes meant they were still being considered. However, this argument was short lived in the market and the EURUSD rallied back to the 1.2800 lvls. We expect continued choppy, highly volatile trading this week.



Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2799 @ 13:18 GMT)
EURUSD: Sell in the 1.2820-35 area stop above 1.2855. targeting 1.2710. Intra-day support 1.2740-50 area

Resist.
1.2874
1.2814
1.2783
1.2799
1.2724
1.2694
1.2634
Support

Quoted:
28 Aug 06
13:18 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8950 @ 13:19 GMT)
GBPUSD: Sell rallies towards 1.8950-70 area stop above 1.8995.

Resist.
1.9047
1.8959
1.8911
1.8950
1.8823
1.8782
1.8693
Support

Quoted:
28 Aug 06
13:19 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (117.13 @ 13:19 GMT)
USDJPY: Buy dips down to 116.50-70 support for a retest of last week's highs at 117.40

Resist.
119.03
118.03
117.65
117.13
116.65
116.04
115.04
Support

Quoted:
28 Aug 06
13:19 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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