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Tuesday August 29, 2006 - 08:35:06 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar weakened a little before Fed minutes
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar pulled back from one-month highs against the yen on Tuesday as investors squared positions ahead of the release today of the minutes of the Federal Reserveâ€™s meeting (August). The Dollar was also under pressure from a stronger yen after China set the daily reference rate for Yuan trading at a fresh post-revaluation high. UsdJpy slipped to 116.72 this morning, down from 117.22 yesterday high and off the latest peak of 117.41 last Friday. Eurusd edged up to 1.2834 from yesterday low 1.2774, and evolve in last week range 1.2725 to 1.2940. EurJpy eased slightly during Japanese session to 149.68, but has already rebound in early European session to 150.02 high but didnâ€™t yet confirm break up on that level. Reflecting the marketâ€™s overall lethargy, the dollarâ€™s trade-weighted index slipped 0.32 percent to 84.99 but was stuck within its tight range over the past month between 85.75 and 84.39.
Todays Key Issues:
Us August Consumer confidence is due at 1500 gmt; survey is expected from 99 to 106 against 106.5 July. The Fed minutes due at 1800 gmt open a busy week of economic data and comments from central bankers that will help clarify whether the Fed is likely to keep holding rates steady after pausing at 5.25% in the August 8 meeting.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD Remains marginally firmer this morning has found support at 1.2725 on Aug 25 low. The recent rejection off 1.2941, on Aug 21 and subsequent sell-off however is expected to weigh overall with potential seen for a resumption of weakness and a test of the next key support at 1.2695, Aug 14 low. A break of this level would be seen as a significant bearish development while on the topside, clearance of 1.2941 is required to reinstate a bullish trend. USDCHF Recent consolidation price action has now defined 1.2446, Aug 15 high and 1.2183, Aug 21 low as the key near-term directional parameters. GBPUSD while the rebound from 1.8775, Aug 18 low was encouraging for aspiring Sterling bulls, only a move beyond 1.9024, Aug 16 peak would undermine our bearish bias expecting a break of 1.8775. USDJPY Is expected to maintain a positive theme while support at 116.09, Aug 23 low remains intact. The next upside trigger is located at 117.42, Aug 25 high where a break would pave the way for strength towards 117.89, the July 19 high. USDCAD maintains a bearish bias ahead of support at 1.1050, Aug 23 low. A break of this level is expected to yield further downside towards 1.1033, Jun 21 low en route to 1.0962, Jun 12 base and ultimately 1.0932, May 31 trend low. Immediate heavy tone dominates below 1.1161, Aug 23 high. AUDUSD continues to appear vulnerable having now made former support at 0.7562, the Aug 18 low. Intraday support lies at 0.7551, Aug 25 low where a break would expose 0.7524 and 0.7479, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements of the 0.7406 to 0.7715 advance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 K ||1.9195 S ||118.70 T ||1.2595 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.9110 T ||117.90 S ||1.2450 T |
|1.2842 M ||1.9025 M ||117.42 P ||1.2350 M |
|1.2830 ||1.9005 ||116.75 ||1.2303 |
|1.2725 S ||1.8850 M ||116.40 T ||1.2250 T |
|1.2700 K ||1.8740 S ||114.65 S ||1.2200 S |
|1.2660 M ||1.8540 K ||114.00 K ||1.2186 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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