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Tuesday August 29, 2006 - 09:54:01 GMT
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Forex Market Update: Dollar weaker, but EURUSD remains in mixed territory

Published: Aug. 29 2006, 06:00 GMT

Dollar weaker, but EURUSD remains in mixed territory

Asia saw the majors continue to be range bound with Japanese in line with expectations.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Euro-Zone M3 (YoY) July out at 7.8% vs. 8.2% exp.
• Euro-Zone M3, 3 month average July, out at 8.3% vs. 8.5% exp.
• Hungarian base rate increasing to 7.25% vs. 7.00% exp.
• Japan's jobless rate july, out at 4.1% as exp.
• Japan's Job-To-Application ratio July, out at 1.09 as exp.
• Japan's Overall Household spending (Y0Y) July, out at -1.3% vs. -0.9% exp.
• Dr Fan Gang, adviser to the PBoC, argues that the CNY is not the cause of imbalances. He argues that the CNY is only undervalued by "less than 1 percentage point annually". He is releasing a paper today at the Australian National University in Canberra, according to a report in the Sydney Morning Herald.
• EUR: In the news, the FT Deutschland reported that the ECB will upgrade its economic growth and inflation forecasts on Thursday when it publishes its next set of quarterly estimates (it didn't provide figures though).

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
USD
The USD came under pressure in late NY and Asian trading as the USD bull square positions before today’s import releases. US Consumer Confidence will provide insight into the mind of the US consumer a critical driver for the US economy ( 70% of GDP). In light of slowing house prices and rising energy prices during the peak summer energy consumption season, a resilient consumer will bode well for the USD. However, despite strong retail sales we expect July confidence to drop to 102.5 in line with expectation, but this figure shouldn’t give USD bears to much to rally behind. In addition traders will be watching the release of FOMC Aug 8th meeting minutes. These minutes represents the meeting where the Fed decided to pause after 17th consecutive increases. We expect the language to show a Fed more confident inflation pressures are in decline and having a relaxed approach toward monetary policy. If the releases play out as we expect the USD should see continued weakness.

EUR
The EUR crept up to the top of the range it had been trading in for the last week in Asia sessions. The move was technically based as the only release M3 was weaker but still holding at acceptable liquid levels. The primary driver for the EUR will be the ECB meeting on Thursday. While the market is anticipating and price a .25% hike, trader will be keen on hearing Trichet intention moving forward. Recent indicators show inflation and growth slowing in the Euro Zone, which stalled the momentum in the single currency. We still predict the ECB at 3.50% by years end for the simple fact that the ECB needs to get monetary policy closer to neutral before growth truly begins to slow in 2007.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2820 @ 05:58 GMT)
Tuesday: EURUSD higher in Asia, but was capped at 1.2830 50% retracement (from 1.2935-1.2725). The 1.2805-1.2855 should show mixed interest, so look to play the above mentioned range and wait for a breakout to give more solid direction this week.

Resist.
1.2918
1.2852
1.2815
1.2820
1.2749
1.2719
1.2653
Support

Quoted:
29 Aug 06
05:58 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8982 @ 05:58 GMT)
Tuesday: GBPUSD still trading in an extremely tight range which we continue to favor playing as long as the 1.8920-1.9025 levels remained intact. Look for a direction of a break of either support or resistance.

Resist.
1.9187
1.9056
1.8991
1.8982
1.8860
1.8795
1.8665
Support

Quoted:
29 Aug 06
05:58 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (116.79 @ 05:58 GMT)
Tuesday: USDJPY traded lower through 116.90 support as Japanese data came out in line with expectations. Look to sell the pair towards 116.85-90 stop above 117.35 to challenge 116.20-30 support intra-day.

Resist.
118.08
117.61
117.41
116.79
116.94
116.66
116.19
Support

Quoted:
29 Aug 06
05:58 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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