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Thursday August 31, 2006 - 04:35:24 GMT
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End of the doldrums this week?

Daily Currency report for Thursday August 31 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
Date ET Release For Actual Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 105.0 103.7 106.5
Aug 29 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 8
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 3.0% 3.0% 2.5%
Aug 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/25 NA NA -643K
Aug 31 08:30 Initial Claims 08/26 315K NA 313K
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Aug 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Aug 56.5 57.0 57.9
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul -0.6% 0.5% 1.2%
Aug 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 33 33 33
Sep 01 00:00 Auto Sales Aug 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Sep 01 00:00 Truck Sales Aug 7.4M 7.3M 7.6M
Sep 01 08:30 Average Workweek Aug 33.9 33.9 33.9
Sep 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 120K 125K 113K
Sep 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 4.7% 4.7% 4.8%
Sep 01 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 78.7 79.5 78.7
Sep 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jul 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Sep 01 10:00 ISM Index Aug 55.0 55.0 54.7



Medium Term Trend: A 38 pip range yesterday has not added to the picture at all, but at least today is the last day of the summer holidays, the month and the 3rd quarter, so perhaps we shall leave the doldrums behind next week. Until until then, and until we close above 1.2950 or below 1.2700, we shall have to allow for much more of the same - range bound and difficult trading conditions. Longer term, whilst above 1.2700, and certainly 1.2450, we feel that the euro is in an uptrend and will test 1.3000 sooner or later - probably in September.

Strategy today: The strategy today and tomorrow is most certainly a "wait and see" approach. It is almost impossible to speculate on the next move and there is little point in trying to pick direction or levels right now. However, any dips to 1.2720/00 are worth trying small longs from, stops below 1.2640.

Chart: Perhaps a final dip to the red trend line will ignite some action...



Medium Term Trend: Edging higher and closing above 1.9000 yesterday. this means that the pound "should" try to hold onto its gains and push higher towards first stop at 1.9100 and then on towards 1.9300. A lot actually depends on how the dollar ends this month against the majors, and with a huge amount of data today and tomorrow, including the jobs report, things could get a little bit messy. Despite all that, with a bit of luck, the pound will hold onto its gains and stay roughly above 1.9000, perhaps dipping to 1.8900 at worst. The 1.8800 area has now formed a rather convincing support base and any more determined dips should hold above there in the medium term.

Strategy today: Try small longs on dips to 1.9000/1.8950, stops below 1.8900, target 1.9100 and then 1.9300.

Chart: A daily close above 1.9000 will have forced some re-thinking.



Medium Term Trend: Pushing back to 117.40 and confirming our suspicions that we may not have topped just yet. We shall have to watch what happens here on the second attempt. A break higher may see the dollar heading higher to test 118.00, but also watch for a sharp hourly reversal from 117.40, which would give a signal to sell. Overall, allow for a bit more activity between 116.80 and 118.00 this week before possibly a sharp fall late in the week. A daily close below 116.50 is the minimum needed to confirm that a new top is in place.

Strategy today: Stand aside if possible and wait for clear signs of topping before selling, stops well above 118.00.

Chart: More action at the 117.40 mark. Watch for signs of hourly reversal between here and 118.00.


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Mon 10 Sep 2018
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AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
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A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
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