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Friday September 1, 2006 - 12:27:24 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar is narrowly mixed as dealers squared already part of their positions before today awaited US employment report.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar was flat against the Euro and slightly higher against the Yen yesterday, with expectations that interest rates differences remains unchanged between US, Eurozone and Japan. The Yen slid across the board hitting a record low against Gbp and chf after data showed industrial output fell 0.9% in July (vs forcast +0.7%). GbpJpy went to 8 years record of 123.58 (+1.2%). By the end of the day, the Eurusd was nearly unchanged at 1.2835. The Eurjpy also hit a fresh record high at 150.62 early this morning. Also the UsdJpy rose to 117.34 and Usdchf was steady at 1.2280. GbpUsd inched to 1.9062. The other biggest mover was the NzdUsd which rose 1% from 0.6391 to 0.6527 boots by reduced expectations that new zealandâ€™s central bank will cut interest rates next year. But dealers warned that it may be in store for a correction soon.
Todays Key Issues:
The US payrolls report for august is due at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show employers added 120â€™000 jobs , suggesting modest growth that would likely make the Fed comfortable leaving rates at 5.25%. Unless figures that are way off forecasts come out, the payrolls data is unlikely to have a large impact. US markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD, for a week now, Continues to trade in a volatile manner and still needs to clear either 1.2941 high or 1.2700 low to provide a clearer directional signal. Until then, expect the pair to remain choppy with volatility risk during figures. USDCHF is still in a trend less configuration. No change here with this week consolidation between 1.2424 and 1.2229 as the key near-term directional parameters. GBPUSD week recent gains from 1.8830 to 1.9094 set the tone for a continuous up side trend. This is potentially paving the way for a climb towards trend resistance at 1.9110. On the downside, strong support lies at 1.8740. In addition Key support still lies at 1.8540. As said multiple time this week, USDJPY Remains in a clear upward path and is expected to maintain this positive trend while support at 116.40 remains intact. The focus is now on the next key resistance and upside trigger 117.90, the July 19 high. This week focus Gbpusd is holding bullish trend near high 223.86, potential acceleration is still possible targeting 230 in the next weeks. Nearest short term support is keeping 222.96. Breaking down this level will trigger hard profit taking (mostly unlikely) pushing through 221.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 K ||1.9195 S ||118.70 T ||1.2595 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.9110 T ||117.90 S ||1.2450 T |
|1.2842 M ||1.9050 M ||117.42 P ||1.2350 M |
|1.2820 ||1.9047 ||117.35 ||1.2310 |
|1.2725 S ||1.8850 M ||116.40 T ||1.2250 T |
|1.2700 K ||1.8740 S ||114.65 S ||1.2200 S |
|1.2660 M ||1.8540 K ||114.00 K ||1.2186 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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13:30 US- Retail Sales
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
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