Monday July 26, 2004 - 18:25:40 GMT
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The dollar traded quietly in a typical “summertime” fashion as traders brace for tomorrow’s important data releases (German Ifo, US Consumer Confidence). EUR/USD drifted between 1.2125 and 1.2165 as a 1.2150 expiry dominated the day’s trading activity. In other muted action, USD/CHF rose from 1.2590 to 1.2645 while USD/JPY stayed below the key stop loss laden 110.30 level (109.88 to110.22). So as we wait for tomorrow’ figures, all eyes and ears will be firmly entrenched on the key 1.2060 level in EUR/USD. Also of note are key psychological resistances at 1.2700 in USD/CHF and 111.00 in USD/JPY. We expect false breaks to occur at or near this level and look for EUR/USD to trade strongly below 1.2100.
We see key medium term support at the 1.2060-40 region in EUR/USD. 1.2088 offers short term support but a break below 1.2040 could be viewed as very EUR bearish. We see congestion at 1.2175-85 and 1.2210 as being the key topside resistance to keep the downtrend in tact.
GAIN AN EDGE
We will buy EUR/USD at 1.2085-65 with a1.2035 stop and 1.2300 objetive.
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