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Wednesday September 6, 2006 - 08:46:22 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
The Yen takes a breather from short-cover rally
By Stéphane Marie - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Yen steadied against other major currencies but players were seen likely to keep unwinding record high yen short positions ahead of key events including the Bank of Japanâ€™s policy meeting later in the week. Speculations about the BOJâ€™s future policy and topics that could be discussed at a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers later this month could support the Yen. Robust Japanese capital spending data, a key factor determining monetary policy, released earlier in the week has kept alive the possibility that the BOJ could boost interest rates against later in the year after lifting them for the first time in six years in July. Yen short covering had accelerated as investors were getting ready to trim huge Yen short positions. Reports indicate that Japanese demand for foreign assets in August has been the highest this year. The RBA kept rates on hold last night and barriers at 0.7725 and 0.7750 have kept a lid on AUDUSD. The Aussie fell after data showed that Australiaâ€™s second quarter gross domestic product grew a smaller than expected 0.3 percent from the previous quarter. Tech support is at 0.7670/75.
Todays Key Issues:
Uk Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) at 09.30 BST.
CAD BoC Rate decision at 14.00 BST (unanimously expected unchanged at 4.25%).
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing at 15.00 BST.
The Risk Today:
Overall it has been a very quiet session in Asia. The only notable movement has been a rebound in the Yen. Dollar Yen bounced off yesterdays low around 115.50 and short term traders ran to cover their short positions pushing the market back above 116. Euro Yen saw similar short covering during the Asian hours. Yen has bids at 115.70/80 and Euro Yen at 148.60.
Euro marked time and only drifted with the â‚¬/y movement. There are stops in the market at 1.2795 but some bids just below at 1.2780, also reports of heavy offers in the 1.2840/70 area.
Kiwi has a resistance at 0.6490 and stops below 0.6430, NZD looks vulnerable!
The Bank of Englandâ€™s MPC starts a two day â€˜rate settingâ€™ meeting.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.9150 S ||117.25 T ||1.2475 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.9100 T ||116.70 S ||1.2420 T |
|1.2870 M ||1.9020 M ||116.35 P ||1.2370 M |
|1.2832 ||1.8932 ||116.33 ||1.2326 |
|1.2770 S ||1.9010 M ||115.50 T ||1.2275 T |
|1.2740 K ||1.8890 S ||115.25 S ||1.2210 S |
|1.2725 M ||1.8860 K ||114.75 K ||1.2186 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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