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Thursday September 7, 2006 - 08:59:31 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar steadies after a jump on strong U.S. Labour data
By Stéphane Marie - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar steadied on Thursday after getting a boost the previous day from a surprisingly big jump in the U.S. labour costs that suggested the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates further. The 5 percent jump in unit labour costs during the second quarter raised the prospect that rising wage pressures would prompt the Fed to resume the string of rate increases it paused last month at 5.25%. Overall, major currencies remain stuck in tight ranges as market players see the Fed likely to hold rates steady, the ECB tightening policy more in the coming months but the BoJ taking a go-slow approach to lifting rates. The Japanese central bank began a two day monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The pound found its footing around $ 1.8850 after sliding more than 1 percent in the past two days on soft economic data and worries about building pressure on Prime Minister Tony Blair to give a timetable for leaving office. Indeed, the GBP got hit very hard again yesterday with a plethora of funds and UK corporate selling. Euro tripped some stops below 1.2800 but there was much talk of â€˜official buying at 1.2770/80 to underpin the pair. The neutral Beige Book put USD on the back foot again but it was nothing serious.
Todays Key Issues:
Uk BoE Rate Decision at 12.00 BST (unanimously expected unchanged at 4.75%).
U.S. Initial Claims and Continuing Claims at 13.30 BST.
The Risk Today:
Another Asian quiet session with EuroJPY being the only real mover. A Japanese institutional bank was seen selling Dollar Yen prior to the fix but was then seen buying shortly afterwards. Offers at 116.90 and bids at 116.50 have confined the pair to a narrow range. We hear of light stops just above 117. Euro Yen pushed higher and this took out some offers at the 149.60 area and some stops just above. The next level is the psychological 150 where the next round offers are clustered. For the Euro there is some talk of stops above 1.2840 but it looks like there will be plenty of offers up to 1.2860/70. Stops below are at 1.2750.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.9010 S ||118.00 T ||1.2475 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8980 T ||117.65 S ||1.2420 T |
|1.2870 M ||1.8915 M ||117.20 P ||1.2370 M |
|1.2802 ||1.8810 ||116.90 ||1.2350 |
|1.2770 S ||1.8775 M ||116.00 T ||1.2275 T |
|1.2740 K ||1.8710 S ||115.50 S ||1.2210 S |
|1.2725 M ||1.8660 K ||114.75 K ||1.2186 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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