Thursday September 7, 2006 - 13:50:31 GMT
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FOREX: GVI Monthly Forex Survey Analysis courtesy Cumino
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.2818 (1.2772), av. responses 1.2735 (1.2913), Adjusted boundaries 1.24-1.32 (1.24-1.32).
GVI 45% (58%) COMPONENTS 20% 70% 10% (7% 70% 23%).
DRY INDEX: 42 (73%).
6mstdev: 7% (6%).
EUR GVI INDEX is skewed toward a slightly bullish USD bias reversing the previous reading. This is better confirmed restricting the boundaries. Anyway the neutrals are still very high at 70% compared to the long-term average of 50%.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 115.94 (114.63), av. responses 115.40 (112.18), Adjusted boundaries 112-120 (111-119).
GVI: 46% (27%) COMPONENTS: 16% 76% 8% (49% 47% 4%)
DRY INDEX: 44% (31%).
6mstdev: 7% (7%).
Bullish USD in relative terms, neutral in absolute terms. Neutrals are very high (76%). Considering the historical JPY bull bias, this change into a major neutral stance is of some interest, slightly increasing the chances for a USD/JPY correction lower during September.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 68.60 (74.40), av. responses 66.22 (72.05), Adjusted boundaries 62-76 (67-81).
GVI: 40% (46%) COMPONENTS:27% 68% 5% (14% 80% 6%).
DRY INDEX: 31% (38%)
6mstdev: 3% (3%). Bearish. As usual during oil corrections the most common view is to anticipate important breaks not yet happened, notwithstanding that history has showed that long term moving average supports were strong. This is of some interest if you assume people here are more largely technically-oriented than relative prices oriented.
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