Thursday September 7, 2006 - 14:51:29 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Forex Poll Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar against the euro turned positive. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.2735 from 1.2913 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (September 4 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2820.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned less positive the EUR/USD to 45 from 58 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned higher to 115.40 from 112.18 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 115.95. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned neutral. It was 48 after 29.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $65.87 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $71.42 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked if the JPY carry trade is over for 2006. 63% said no while 37% said yes.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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