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Friday September 8, 2006 - 09:08:36 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged at 0.25 percent
By Stéphane Marie - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Despite one or two catalysts that came along the market was quite calm and continued the cross/JPY selling initiated on Thursday. Firstly, Tanigaki said that the G7 will discuss currency issues as part of talks on the global economy downplaying the headline yesterday about JPY weakness. This had no effect on the exchanges at all. Then later on it was confirmed that the BoJ decision was to keep rates on hold at 0.25%. The G7 gathering in Singapore later this month has loomed large as investors look to see if finance ministers keep up pressure on countries enjoying big trade surpluses, notably China, to allow more currency appreciation. The comments by Germanyâ€™s deputy finance minister Thomas Mirow came as something of a surprise and prompted speculators to cover hefty short positions in the Yen.
On Thursday the Dollar strengthened against European currencies, helped after San Francisco Federal Reserve Janet Yellen said the central bank still had a bias towards raising interest rates further.
The Kiwi tumbled more than 1% to 0.6382 on media reports that New Zealand Finance Minister said a high exchange rate was a risk to the slowing economy.
Todays Key Issues:
No U.S. data today (US consumer Credit is released at 8pm London time tonight so will have little effect) means the market will watch Fukui closely and react to what he says.
CAD unemployment rate (Aug.) at 12.00 BST.
The Risk Today:
Fukuiâ€™s comments on the rate outlook will be keenly watched after data showing a surprisingly big inflation slowdown in the revised consumer price index last month cast doubt on whether the BoJ would raise rates again this year.
Euro Yen has managed to hold just above the 147.80 but it looks like a question of how long before it breaks and we push lower.
Euro has remained stable throughout with much talk of those official and option related bids at 1.2700/10 and sell orders at 1.2750/60.
GBP managed to squeeze out a few short term stops through 1.8750/60 but once these were taken out it soon returned to the lower 1.87â€™s.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8900 S ||118.00 T ||1.2575 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8820 T ||117.65 S ||1.2530 T |
|1.2870 M ||1.8780 M ||117.20 P ||1.2500 M |
|1.2715 ||1.8725 ||116.25 ||1.2435 |
|1.2680 S ||1.8700 M ||115.75 T ||1.2400 T |
|1.2620 K ||1.8660 S ||115.50 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2575 M ||1.8610 K ||114.75 K ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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