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Friday September 8, 2006 - 11:58:26 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• BoJ maintains economic/CPI recovery scenario – leaving 2006 rate hike risk in place.
• Noises from G7 expose underlying positional fragilities.
• However, basic G7 stance on global imbalances is unlikely to change too much.
• EUR-USD downside risk below 1.2700.
• Canadian employment due today.

Market Outlook

In Japan, the BoJ left both policy and its assessment of the economy unchanged and Fukui adopted a similar stance at this morning’s press conference. The message is clear – the economy is seen as continuing to expand moderately and CPI is expected to maintain a rising trend. They argued that recent CPI revisions had done little to change this view (even though implicitly this trend is now continuing from a lower base). The comments will maintain market expectations about the possibility of a further 25bp rate hike by the end of December, although some upturn in core CPI y/y rates will likely be required to trigger this. While such developments do little to overturn the broader view of the JPY being a low-yield currency, it could add to the positional pressure seen on the JPY in recent days. To this extent 147.25 could be seen on EUR-JPY before there is any stability and above 148.50 is needed to steady the shop today.

EUR-USD has also been testing the lows again in Europe this morning, although thus far support at 1.2695-1.2700 has remained intact. This has been the bottom of the range in place over the past six weeks and a break would likely spark a further wave of position liquidations.

Yesterday’s comments from G7 were pretty uncoordinated, revolving around whether recent JPY weakness would feature on next week’s agenda. Fukui added his own thoughts today by saying that he did not expect an in-depth discussion about the JPY. It is all a question of degree. After the move in EUR-JPY to fresh highs it is inevitable that some discussion will take place about this issue, although whether it goes on to command a particular mention in official G7 statements is less clear. The novel items at this meeting are a) the BoJ has just raised rates,b) Paulson is now US Treasury Secretary and c) EUR-JPY has just hit a new high, so the market will remain uncertain about whether these factors will have any impact.

What did come out of yesterday was that the issue of global imbalances would not be presented in a separate annexe, which was seen as neutralising one potential threat to the USD. However, in comments seen overnight from the US (Paulson) and China, it seems clear that imbalances will continue to get a mention in the communiqué. What also seems clear is that more stress is being put on relative growth rates as being a factor in the adjustment of these imbalances i.e. slower US growth, stronger growth elsewhere and the role that Chinese domestic demand could play in this regard. However, it is highly unlikely that G7 will suddenly jettison their previous view that exchange rate flexibility or adjustment also has a central role to play. In this regard, the basic thrust of the G7 communique may not differ too much from that seen in recent years.

Day Ahead
Canada – employment data is due and this has been erratic in recent months, raising some uncertainty about the nature of the underlying trend. The last four outcomes on total employment have been (Apr +22k, May +96.7k, Jun -4.6k, Jul -5.5k), which works out at an average +27.2k per month. The full time component (Apr +26.4k, May +150.8k, Jun -67.1k, Jul +21.6k) is more impressive with a monthly average rise of 32.9k. Overall, the solid trend looks to be intact, but after weakness in other data over the past couple months the market will be open to suggestions. USD-CAD remains stuck in its current 1.1030- 1.1150 trading range, although the upside could be pressured if oil continues to weaken and EUR-USD breaks lower.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Employment (Aug) 07.00 +20k
CA Unemployment rate (Aug) 07.00 6.3%
US Consumer credit (Jul) 15.00 $7.5bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP M2 plus CDs (Aug) y/y +0.5% +0.5%
JP Bank lending (Aug) y/y +1.8% +2.1%
AU Housing finance (Jul) m/m +0.9% +0.4%
AU Trade balance (Jul) -A$0.6bn -A$0.7bn
JP BoJ policy announcement 0.25% 0.25%
CH Unemployment rate (Aug, sa) 3.3% 3.3%
DE Trade balance (Jul) €13.1bn €12.7bn
DE Current account (Jul) €7.3bn €8.2bn
DE Exports (Jul) m/m +2.3% +0.6%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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