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Monday September 11, 2006 - 09:43:16 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar strikes six week high against majors
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar rose to six-week highs on Friday as dealers aimed at technical targets and positioned for the risk that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates again to fight inflation. Eurusd went down from 1.2732 to low 1.2652 on Friday and 1.2649 this morning. In the same mood, Gbpusd started Friday up to 1.8754 and went down to low 1.8629. UsdJpy jumped from its low 116.11 to high 117.04 on Friday and still running this morning high 117.34. Usdchf went up from 1.2425 to Friday high 1.2508 and high 1.2500 this morning. Traders said the dollarâ€™s gains were mostly technically driven. Solid US economic data and warnings on inflation from Federal Reserve this week have also lent the dollar some supports. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold this month. One of the biggest losers this week has been the NZD, which has slumped almost 3% and extended losses on Friday after the countryâ€™s finance minister expressed about the currencyâ€™s recent rise, today low 0.6344.
Todays Key Issues:
GB July Trade Balance at 8:30 GMT due -6.2b vs -6.46b. CA Aug House Starts at 12:15 GMT due 227k vs 236.5k (annualized). Tomorrow 05:00 GMT JPN August Consumer Confidence Index (prior 48.6).
The Risk Today:
G7 awaited; speakers form the Fed this week have continued to sound warnings on higher inflation even though economic growth is slowing, keeping the risk alive the Fed could be forced to tighten policy later this year and support the dollar. Friday's break of 1.2695 support confirmed threatening bearish trend. But 1.2941 is still defined as level needed to be broken and relieve downward pressure on the range 1.2456 - 1.2980 which has contained price action since May. Eurusd trend-line support came at 1.2692 today; it looks set for a deeper setback with respect to the 1.2456 to 1.2980 advance, which has its 61.8% and 76.4% retracements at 1.2641 and 1.2570 respectively. The immediate outlook remains negative under 1.2880. We need a recovery over 1.2980 to clear this negative tone. Some risk remains for an extended Eurusd sell-off down to 1.2456 range base. USDCHF Thursday's break of 1.2446 resistance reinforced the recent bullish tone; paving the way for extended upside near 1.2597. It is likely targeting 1.2736 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919 decline). The short-term up-trend dominates above 1.2418, and next support stays at 1.2323. GBPUSD maintains a heavy tone but support remains 1.8618 (50% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.9146 advance). More likely further slippage is still possible to 1.8493 (61.8% retracement). USDJPY we maintain a bearish bias within the 115.56 - 117.51 range, expecting the downside to remain under pressure.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8900 S ||118.00 T ||1.2597 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8820 T ||117.65 S ||1.2548 T |
|1.2880 M ||1.8780 M ||117.20 P ||1.2500 M |
|1.2710 ||1.8696 ||117.10 ||1.2438 |
|1.2640 S ||1.8660 S ||116.10 M ||1.2400 T |
|1.2570 M ||1.8610 K ||115.50 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.75 K ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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