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Tuesday September 12, 2006 - 05:51:03 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rose against Yen but hold last week gains vs Eur and Gbp
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar rose near a two-month high against the Yen yesterday as investors believe that Japanese interest rates are unlikely to rise this year. Traders are heavily betting against the yen which went up to 117.78. Low was 116.61 in the early hours of trading. With little impact on Yen, which often trades as a proxy for the Chinese currency, the IMF reiterated the need for China to move to a more flexible exchange rate. Eurusd went up to 1.2740 and eased a little later in the afternoon. ECB is still widely expected to raise rates in October because of euro zone inflation viewed to be above bankâ€™s target. EurJpy recovered from last week losses and went up to 149.41 and 149.76 during Asian session. Gold dived below $600 on Monday as Investor concern was growing about inflation coming from commodity price rallies. This recent move is making people more comfortable. From last week high 640.60, gold slide yesterday to 583 low and rebound around 591 this morning.
Todays Key Issues:
GB Aug Consumer Price Index is due 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY at 08:30 GMT.
Most awaited US July Trade Balance at 12:30 GMT due -$65.5B vs -$64.8B. Itâ€™s widest in six months as higher oil prices boosted import costs. It would be the largest since January at -$66.2B.
The Risk Today:
Yesterday UsdJpy moved up 117.50 end August resistance, it is now near 117.89 pivot point. Break up will pave the way clear of resistance to 118.90. Only a return down to 116.60 would clearly cancel actual uptrend. EurJpy had recovered most last week losses. Itâ€™s trying to move above last week highs 149.82, but it is likely to face profit taking around 150 Eurusd only approached 1.2640 support (61.8% retracement of the 1.2456-1.2941). On the other way; only a move above 1.2759 resistance would relieve recent down pressure. Usdchf consolidated last week gains around 1.2450. Further small correction is possible, but only a break of 1.2360 will turn us away form 1.2505 last Friday high. Gbpusd looks heavy and tested 1.8610 support (50% retracement of 1.8090-1.9146). Only a step up 1.8780 will erase risk of targeting 1.8493 support.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8900 S ||118.90 T ||1.2597 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8820 T ||117.89 P ||1.2548 T |
|1.2759 M ||1.8780 M ||117.65 S ||1.2500 M |
|1.2720 ||1.8693 ||117.57 ||1.2432 |
|1.2640 S ||1.8660 S ||116.60 K ||1.2400 T |
|1.2570 M ||1.8610 K ||115.50 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.75 K ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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