User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday September 12, 2006 - 15:27:02 GMT
Saxo Bank - www.global-view.com/saxo_bank/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Update - US Trade Deficit Hits a Record High

Published: Sep. 12 2006, 13:37 GMT

US Trade Deficit Hits a Record High

...but USD holds gains.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK CPI (Aug) mom 0.4% vs. 0.3% exp., yoy 2.5% vs. 2.4% exp.
• UK UK Core CPI (Aug) 1.1% vs. 1.1% exp,
• UK RPI (Aug) mom 0.4% vs 0.3% exp., yoy 3.4% vs. 3.4% exp.
• US Trade Balance (Jul) -$68.0 vs. -$65.5 exp.
• CA Int'l Merchandise Trade (Jul) C$3.9 vs C$4.9 exp.
• CA New Housing Price (Jul) mom 1.1% vs. 1.0% exp.

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
• French Industrial and Manufacturing Production disappointing.
• Norwegian CPI Underlying MoM (Aug) out at -0.4% vs. 0.0% expected.
• UK PPI figures all lower than expected.
• UK Visible Trade Balance (Jul) out at -£6338 vs. -£6200 expected.
• Feds Minehan suggests growth will slow to below 3 percent and that energy prices might feed through to core inflation.
• NZ 4Q Manpower Employment Outlook improving to 26% from 19% in 3Q.
• Canadian Housing Starts (Aug) out at 213.7K vs. 229.0K expected.
• Canadian Capacity Utilization (2Q) out at 85.5% vs. 85.3% expected.
• AU 4Q Manpower Employment Outlook improving to 27% from 15% in 3Q.
• JP 4Q Manpower Employment Outlook unchanged at 24% from 3Q.
• GY 4Q Employment Outlook improving to 5% from 1% in 3Q.
• FR 4Q Employment Outlook unchanged at 4% from 3Q.
• UK 4Q Employment Outlook deteriorating to 9% from 12% in 3Q.
• Japanese Domestic CGPI MoM (Aug) out at 0.2% as expected.
• Japanese Consumer Confidence (Aug) out at 47.8 vs. 49.0 expected.
• Japanese Consumer Confidence Households (Aug) out at 47.6 vs. 48.6 previously
• Fed Poole says US economic growth still 'robust'

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• UK Leading Indicator Index
• Fed Yellen Speaks
• NZ Retail Sales
• JN Consumer Confidence, Trade Balance, Tokyo Condo Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization.

NZD
Tonight's retail sales will be very important for the NZD. A weak figure could trigger a significant selloff. With no support coming from the RBNZ....watchout.

USD
The greenback held to earlier gains despite weaker then expected Trade Balance figures. Printing at -$68.00b above the 65.5 expected figure positioned the US trade deficit at new record level. However, the USD bulls were not to be denied as the EURUSD unexpectedly broke the psychological 1.2700 lvl and pushed USDJPY towards 118.00 lvls. With a thin calendar before the 14th, watch the USD trade within the ranges with a bullish bias. Thursdays Advance Retails Sales and Fridays CPI will show if this USD rally is for real.

CAD
Canada printed mixed data with housing prices firmer but critical trade surplus falling to $C3.9b. Trading was choppy as the USDCAD jumped from 1.1180 to 1.1220 before settling on a downward move towards 1.1180 resistances (bottom of three day range). With a light calendar before the 19th CADs fate will be defined by USD action. Failure to break support in the near term will have the USDCAD continued in its bullish channel.

JPY
Japan will be releasing a wealth of data between NY and the close of Asia trading. Recent economic indicators have pointed to a very weak Japanese economy and the JPY has paid the price. Trader will be focused on Industrial production, Current Account and release of the BoJ Monetary Policy meetings minutes. Market sentiment is clearly bearish on the JPY and traders will be searching of any weakness. Should these figures disappoint look for the GBPJPY and EURJPY to get the biggest upside bounce.

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
JPY
Consumer confidence fell unexpectedly to 47.8 vs. 49.0 forecasted. These figures continued a significant downside trend in Japan’s economic indicators. Just this week we have seen GDP print lower to 1.0% and Machine Orders fall off the map. We believe the only salvation Yen Bulls have will be found at the G-7 in Singapore, where Europe’s policy makers will put pressure on Japan to strengthen its currency. Remember Japan has been keeping the JPY weak through an indirect low interest rate monetary policy and any additional rate increase would cause appreciation. Until then we see the JPY continue to look weak against the majors.

After a day of positioning the FX market will be focused on today’s economic releases.

UK
The UK CPI will be the first economic indicator on the docket. After a surprise rate hike, the BoE toned down their hawkish rhetoric in August as inflation levels ease off slightly. The current expectation is for a single increase in November. Should the reading ease slightly we could see GBP weakness as the Nov. hike comes off the table. On the reverse, should inflation increase traders will rush to price in the additional rate hike.

USD
Well once again its time to see how far the US can go into debt with Trade Deficit (Jul) expected at 65.5b. While the market is relatively numb to the massive figures each month there is some event risk built into this reading. First the market has become aware, once again, of structural imbalances seen in the price action of the NZD and ZAR. Second this July reading encompasses oil at the $77 lvls, which could create a significant surprise to the upside. However, since this market has yet to decide on a direction (EURUSD still in a 1.25-1.28 range) and the USD feeling strong a figure in line or below could see the USD rally.

CAD
After taking a beating in recent sessions, Canada looks very bearish going into Europe. After a rash of disappointing reading (Capacity Utilization the exception) this week alone, a decline in New Housing prices or more importantly Intl Merchandise Trade would see USDCAD test 1.1243 lvl. We see CAD as perhaps the weakest currency today.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2714 @ 13:31 GMT)
EURUSD range bound with a bearish bias in Monday's trading, but still able make a higher low, which suggest the pair squeezing higher in early Europe. Look for renewed selling interest in the 1.2755-75 area, bear trend line from Sep. 5 and 50% retracement (from 1.2872-1.2650) for a test of the 1.2680-00 base. Or wait for a break of 1.2650 which would give scope for a 1.2560 target further out.

Resist.
1.2880
1.2788
1.2745
1.2714
1.2654
1.2605
1.2514
Support

Quoted:
12 Sep 06
13:31 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8758 @ 13:31 GMT)
GBPUSD finding a bottom early in the week above 1.8600, but remains heavy. Sell rallies as long as 1.7810 resistance remain intact. A break above to target a short term corrective recovery for a test of 1.8780-90 where new solid selling interest should be found. We still favor placing orders to sell just below 1.8600 for a 1.8525 target.

Resist.
1.8864
1.8760
1.8707
1.8758
1.8603
1.8550
1.8446
Support

Quoted:
12 Sep 06
13:31 GMT

US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (117.67 @ 13:31 GMT)
USDJPY traded through 117.40 key resistance which gives scope for further upside in the week to come. Today look to buy downticks towards 116.80-117.05 support stop below 116.65 for a 118.00 intra-day target. On a longer term basis USDJPY still need to close above the bear trend line from 1990 presently at 118.70 to give longer term upside acceleration.

Resist.
119.69
118.52
118.10
117.67
116.93
116.19
115.02
Support

Quoted:
12 Sep 06
13:31 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105