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Wednesday September 13, 2006 - 09:34:17 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
The US trade deficit jumped to a record high of $68.0bn in July
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar rose to a two-month high against CHF near 1.2550 extending gains after BNS said it sees growth slowing next year. UsdJpy held near five month peaks at 118.15 in late Europe and US sessions. The Yen has faller as a run of weak economic data has convinced many markets players that the BOJ will be slow in raising rates from 0.25%. Against Yen and Chf, two of the lowest-yielding major currencies, investors are accumulating Dollar and Euro offering higher yields. The US trade deficit jumped to a record high of $68.0bn in July, up nearly 5% from $64.8bn in June. The $3.2bn increase was due to a combination of factors. Higher oil prices drove up the petroleum-related deficit by $1.0bn, while a 1.0% drop in exports coupled with a 0.6% increase in non-petroleum imports was responsible for the other $2.2bn deterioration in the deficit. It may not get much worse over the next few months. Indeed, the recent drop in oil prices suggests it will get a bit better. The EurJpy was little changed between 149.20- 149.80 range. Eurusd traded at 1.2667 lowest this morning close to the six-week low of 1.2650. Strategists said the euro inability to gain despite the bad US deficit date and more inflation suggested there is already a lot of â€śbad newsâ€ť priced into the dollar.
Todays Key Issues:
CA Labor Productivity 2Q is due at 12:30 GMT, -0.4% to -0.3% vs. +0.5% 1Q.
US treasury Secretary Paulson speaks on international economy at 15:00 GMT.
US Federal Budget Aug due 18:00 GMT, -$70B vs -$51.3 July.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd is expected to remain vulnerable following the recent break of 1.2695. This signaled an end to the past month's trading range, thereby exposing 1.2640 and 1.2570 thereafter, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements of the 1.2456 to 1.2980 advance. Initial resistance is located at 1.2744, near yesterday's 1.2734 high. USDCHF Continues to climb and further upside is expected now to test on 1.2597, where a break there could pave the way for a climb towards 1.2736, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919 decline. Support this morning comes in at Monday's low of 1.2400. GBPUSD is expected to weaken further over the near-term with initial resistance at 1.8780, Aug 18 low which also marks yesterdays high. A break below Monday's low of 1.8610 could pave the way for a decline towards 1.8493, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.9146 advance. USDJPY maintains a firmer tone following the break this week of the former resistance at 117.51 and 117.89 has also been breached shifting the focus to 119.41, the Feb 3 high. Note too that a multi-year trendline / triangle resistance level comes in at 118.50. A clear breach of this level would mark a significant bullish development.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8900 S ||119.41 T ||1.2640 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8820 T ||118.50 S ||1.2597 S |
|1.2744 M ||1.8780 M ||117.89 P ||1.2548 T |
|1.2693 ||1.8745 ||117.57 ||1.2506 |
|1.2640 S ||1.8660 S ||116.60 K ||1.2400 T |
|1.2570 M ||1.8610 K ||115.50 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.75 K ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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