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Thursday September 14, 2006 - 09:43:55 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Yen rebound in technical trades ahead of G7 meeting.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Usdjpy pulled back, after 3 days advanced, from high 118.16 to 117.40 low after comments from the Bank of Japan. It was little changed ahead of G7 finance ministers meeting this weekend. The yen fell to five month lows early this seek on worries Japanâ€™s economic recovery is not showing clear signs, but the Bank of Japanâ€™s last meeting expressed the board believed the economy was expanding steadily. Usdjpy has been down last night 117.40 and hold firm tone around 117.60. Eurusd barely changed on the day having hit an intraday high of 1.2717 and low 1.2666. Dealers warned the Yen remains vulnerable to near-term decline as investors sell it to buy higher-yielding currencies. Because of this, Yen and Chf remain relatively weak. The market believes the sharp slide in crude oil prices this week will benefit the US economy more than Europe or Japan. It provides latest support in USD. Today US figures might confirm that view. The NZDUSD jumped after the Reserve Bank of New 7ealand left interest rates unchanged at 7.25%, but said it might act in the futures given rising inflationary pressure. It jumped from 0.6440 to 0.6600 this morning.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 12:30 GMT; US weekly jobless claims (305k to 315K vs 310k), US August retail sales (-0.10% vs 1.4%), CA July Manufacturing shipments (-0.3% vs 1.9%). US July Business Inventories is due at 14:00 GMT 0.5% vs 0.8%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd is expected to remain vulnerable following the recent break of 1.2695. This signaled an end to the past month's trading range, thereby exposing 1.2640 and 1.2570 thereafter, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements of the 1.2456 to 1.2980 advance. The actual trend is bearish below 1.2744 (previously resistance), USDCHF is expected to keep a bullish tone above 1.2349 and further upside is expected now to test on 1.2597, where a break there could pave the way for a climb towards 1.2736, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919 decline. GBPUSD, as expected, has been weaker and went through 1.8780 minor support. A break below Monday's low of 1.8610 could pave the way for a decline towards 1.8493, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.9146 advance. A break of 1.8790, actual consolidation level, is required for extended upside towards 1.8820 and 1.8900, the 50% and 61.8% retracements. More weakness under 1.8610 is reversal risk and call for further decline. USDJPY, after maintaining a firmer tone in the latest days, stalled ahead of 118.50 trend-line resistance. But as long as Tuesday's 118.16 high remains intact, there is a possibility for a pull-back at 117.20 and 116.90, the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the 115.56 to 118.16 advance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8900 S ||119.41 T ||1.2640 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8820 T ||118.50 S ||1.2597 S |
|1.2744 M ||1.8780 M ||117.89 P ||1.2548 T |
|1.2687 ||1.8700 ||117.73 ||1.2493 |
|1.2640 S ||1.8660 S ||116.60 K ||1.2400 T |
|1.2570 M ||1.8610 K ||115.50 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.75 K ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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