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Friday September 15, 2006 - 10:09:44 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar dips as traders await inflation data and G7 meeting
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar fell against the euro for the second day in a row as European Central Bank warned on inflation. Eurusd was confined to a narrow range as traders maintained their current positions ahead of key US inflation data and this weekendâ€™s meeting of G7 members. A surprising rise in August US retail sales helped the dollar erase some losses, but the currency has been lower on the day; ending just under 1.2740 resistance. Eurusd high and low were 1.2750 â€“ 1.2680. US retail sales reassuring the market for a little time with a better than expected 0.2% increases in retail sales for August. Overall, a solid if not spectacular sales report. Coupled with the news of a slight decline in initial jobless claims; it represents a rare good day for the activity outlook. Usdjpy evolved in a narrow range 117.40 to 117.80. Eurjpy continued to process in favor of the Euro testing 149.90 high, low was 149.01. Gbpusd was up 0.9% from low 1.8756 to high 1.8921, boosted by strong GB retail sales and housing data. The Nzdusd was the biggest mover on the day, hitting a six-month high 0.6653 as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded a hawkish note after leaving rates unchanged.
Todays Key Issues:
Eurozone Aug CPI due at 9:00 GMT, 0.1% vs -0.1%. US Aug CPI is due at 12:30 GMT, 0.2% (vs 0.4%). US Aug Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization due at 12:15, respectively expected 0.2% (vs 0.4%) and 82.5% (vs 82.4%). University of Michigan Confidence due at 12:45 expected 83.7% (vs 82%).
The Risk Today:
EURUSD remains in a tight range and it more looks like a bear flag formation. A break below 1.2640 could trigger a new round of weakness through 1.2570 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2456 to 1.2980). Initial resistance this morning comes in at yesterdays 1.2755 high. USDCHF retains a bullish tone above 1.2400. We look for extended gains beyond Wednesday's 1.2552 high en route to 1.2597 - the upside trigger for 1.2736 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919). GBPUSD is holding onto gains achieved this week around 1.8840. Further gains would pave the way up to 1.9094. The recent low at 1.8610 has been confirmed as key support and a break of it could open a bearish them searching for 1.8493 trendline. USDJPY is not far away from 118.50 trend-line resistance. Expecting, a break and a significant bullish development should pave the way for gains towards 119.41. On the other hand, going down would find support around 116.60. EURCHF maintains a bullish tone. We expect 1.5830, yesterdays low to provide a base and look for fresh gains towards psychological round number resistance at 1.6000. EURJPY might be seen as corrective in the near-term, developing bearish theme dominates while the 149.86 holds; just on top of 149.83 prior resistance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.9094 K ||119.41 T ||1.2640 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8920 M ||118.50 S ||1.2597 S |
|1.2755 M ||1.8900 S ||117.89 P ||1.2552 T |
|1.2704 ||1.8840 ||117.45 ||1.2560 |
|1.2640 S ||1.8780 M ||116.60 K ||1.2400 T |
|1.2570 M ||1.8610 K ||115.50 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.75 T ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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