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Tuesday September 19, 2006 - 09:11:32 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar holds near five-month high versus yen
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar holds near 5-month high against the Yen after G7 meeting and Japanese Finance minister said that Yenâ€™s weakness was not specifically discussed at the G7 meeting. Tanigakiâ€™s comment convinced the market that Europe and Japan are very unlikely to make coordinated action to support the Yen. EurJpy surged from 148.87 low yesterday trade and went up to 150.28 early today. Thanks to rate differential expected to extend next month, Eurjpy is holding bullish channel. UsdJpy hit the peak of 118.26 on Monday, the highest since mid-April. The Eurusd recovered by inches from 7-week low hitting 1.2727 today following yesterday light up trend. ECB made comments that interest rates are ready for further rise and suggested the possibility to reach 4% next year. This weekâ€™s big event is the Federal Reserveâ€™s Policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave the rate unchanged at 5.25% and the statement to remain largely unchanged from last time.
Todays Key Issues:
Eurozone ZEW Sept Economic sentiment is due at 9:00 GMT expected -4 vs 1.3. CAD Aug CPI is due at 11:00 GMT expected 0.1% unchanged (MoM) and 2.1% vs 2.4% (YoY). US Aug PPI is due at 12:30 GMT expected 0.2% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 3.6% vs 4.2% (YoY). Also to be release; US Aug Housing Starts and Building Permits both expected 1â€™750k.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains vulnerable despite yesterday's bounce following recent weakness that resulted in a break of 1.2640 on Friday. Market maintains a bearish tone below 1.2755 and is looking for further downside towards 1.2570 (76.4% retracement). Only a move above 1.2755 would shift our focus away from the 1.2570 support. USDCHF immediate up-trend is intact above 1.2434, with the focus break 1.2626 last Fridayâ€™s high, which should pave the way to 1.2760 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919 decline). It would have to slide down 1.2400 to end bullish channel. GBPUSD pulled back for last week resistance 1.8906 (61.8% retracement of the 1.9094 to 1.8601 decline). The focus is now on 1.8710, a break there would open the door toward 1.8610. A further break of this key level would confirm the return of a downtrend. USDJPY has solid support at 117.26. And as long as 116.60 Key level holds, the short-term bull trend remains intact. Dealers are still focusing on the 118.50 strong resistance. This level needs to break in order to show further advance to 119.41 trendline resistance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.9094 K ||121.07 K ||1.2760 S |
|1.2920 S ||1.8920 M ||119.41 T ||1.2640 T |
|1.2755 M ||1.8900 S ||118.50 S ||1.2597 S |
|1.2695 ||1.8810 ||117.93 ||1.2528 |
|1.2640 S ||1.8780 M ||116.60 K ||1.2400 T |
|1.2570 M ||1.8610 K ||115.50 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.75 T ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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