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Tuesday September 19, 2006 - 22:53:04 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar NZD dips its toes below 0.6600
The NZD traded in an established range yesterday with gains being hampered by strong resistance around the 0.6650 to 0.6660 level, whilst yield demand kept the NZ dollar supported above 0.6600. Overnight the currency pair initially headed back toward the top end of the range after soft US PPI data but a breakout didn’t eventuate with the market mindful of NZ Q2 current account data due out tomorrow and Finance Minister Michael Cullen speaking in Singapore today. As sentiment turned negative the NZD headed lower, ending the session below 0.6600.

Australian Dollar: AUD contained above 0.7500
An uninspiring session yesterday saw the AUD trade in a tight range between 0.7544 – 0.7564 with no local data to excite the market. Overnight the AUD pushed a little higher supported by stronger gold and other commodities, but the rally was short lived as it came under some pressure in late New York trading. As a result the AUD broke through the 0.7544 low seen during the Asian timezone to post a new low of 0.7507. It opens this morning around 0.7520.

Major Currencies: Thai coup erodes yen gains
Having established an intraday high of 118.12 during the local session yesterday, USD/JPY slipped following comments from EU officials that statements following the weekend’s G7 meeting had yet to be digested by the market. Softer US housing and inflation data further eroded the dollar, which posted a 116.99 overnight low. The currency pair recovered however, following an attempted coup in Thailand. The Thai Baht staged its largest one-day fall in three years as Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, declared a state of emergency and gains in the more liquid yen were thus eroded. The euro also weakened after Germany’s ZEW survey of investor sentiment registered its lowest reading in eight years. The euro dipped to an overnight low of 1.2651 and opens this morning at 1.2675. USD/JPY is seen at 117.60 and USD/GBP at 1.8815.

US housing collapse continues. Housing starts fell by 6.0% in August to 1665k from a downwardly revised 1772k in July. This is the lowest rate since April 2003 (remember the Fed cut rates in June 2003 a month after that release). Building permits were also down for the seventh month in a row, falling 2.3%to 1722k.

US PPI also soft. The core August monthly number fell 0.4%, with the headline up 0.1%. The main surprises in the core result were falls in light trucks (-3.4%), passenger cars (-2.6%) and drugs (-0.9%).

German ZEW very weak. At -22.2 the index recorded its lowest read since its inception in September 2000. The expectations component plunged: higher interest rates and a planned increase in taxes appear to be sapping sentiment despite the substantial drop in oil prices over the past month. While this signals a sharp decline in German IP, we prefer the more reliable Ifo index, which is due for release September 26.

Canadian CPI in line with expectations. The monthly core number came in at +0.2%, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 1.5%. The headline annual rate dropped to 2.1%, as expected. The outcome is likely to reinforce the BoC's on-hold stance: headline inflation coming back to target and core inflation contained.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
20 Sep Aust Jul Westpac-MI Leading Index 5.3% n/f
US FOMC Rate Decision 5.25% 5.25%
UK Sep BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 6:1 8:0
Aug PSNCR £bn –6.3 n/f
Aug M4 Money Supply %yr 13.1% n/f
Can Aug Leading Index 0.2% 0.2%
Jul Wholesale Sales –0.6% 0.5%
21 Sep NZ Q2 Current Acct Bal NZDmn –2,688 –2,811
Aust Aug New Motor Vehicle Sales 2.6% n/f
RBA Bulletin

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (18 September)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (18 September)
• NZ Q2 Current Account Preview (15 September)
• RBNZ Sep MPS Review (14 September)
• NZ Q2 Terms of Trade Review (11 September)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (11 September)
• NZ Sep RBNZ MPS Preview (8 September)
• El Nino conditions in NZ? (6 September)
• NZ manufacturing sector trends (4 September)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (4 September)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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