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Thursday September 21, 2006 - 10:55:42 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD generally softer after FOMC, but their message is essentially unchanged.
• Key barrier for EUR-USD is at 1.2740-50.
• EUR-GBP testing key support levels.
• Upside corrective risk on the JPY remains in place.
• NZD lower but above key levels after current account data.
• Canadian retail sales, US Philly Fed feature today.

Market Outlook

The FOMC did not reveal anything too significant in its latest policy statement, which accompanied an unchanged rate decision. They noted that growth moderation appeared to be continuing and that inflation pressure was likely to moderate over time. However, they also acknowledged that there were risks to this view and that the extent and timing of any further policy firming would depend upon how the data evolved. The fact that they firmly reiterated confidence in the moderation view has weighed on the USD a little, but key levels on EUR-USD need to be won back before current corrective risk is lifted – those levels being at 1.2740-50 (100-day MA at 1.2740). A move (and especially a close) above this area would be a positive factor for the short-term.

GBP is currently showing better than the EUR, with inroads being made into the long-standing support area at 0.6705-20. As we noted yesterday, the fact that it is revisiting this area so quickly after the recent bounce is itself a cause for concern, but until it breaks we would be hesitant about calling for downside. A move below 0.6700 would suggest downside risk towards 0.6600. The 0.6730-40 area needs to be won back to alleviate current downside pressure.

This morning’s UK CBI survey was a little stronger than expected in terms of the balances on orders (up to -5 from -8) and output (up to +14 from +10) – orders are at their best level since Dec 2004. However, price expectations eased to +8% from +13% (the latter being the highest level since January 2005).

Japanese trade data was fairly close to market expectations, with exports continuing to advance. The JPY showed limited reaction to the news and the broader JPY situation remains the same, i.e. whether short-term positional pressures can continue to offset medium-term JPY frailties. This is still the risk for the short-term with 148.20 ahead of 147.56 the key trigger levels to look at on EUR-JPY and 116.95 a similar level of significance on USD-JPY. Below these levels EUR-JPY would have risk to 146.00 and USD-JPY to 115.50-116.00. Developments in EURUSD could influence what happens on these JPY rates.

The New Zealand Q2 current account deficit was slightly higher than expected and at the time this knocked the NZD back to 0.6580 from 0.6640. The NZD had shown some underlying resilience yesterday in the face of comments by finmin Cullen and key now will be whether it can hold above 0.6535.

The ZAR is also a currency that has recently been afflicted by current account deficit concerns. Q2 current account numbers released this morning showed a modest narrowing in the deficit to an annualised ZAR101.7bn from ZAR103.1bn previously (6.1% of GDP from 6.4% of GDP). The data confirms that the deficit is still a problem, although to a certain degree the market is well aware of such arguments already. The ZAR has once again been highly volatile and a break of the 7.25-7.50 range is needed to signal fresh direction. Significant today will be whether the CB comments any further on the data and whether the ZAR can withstand what would likely be a fairly negative commentary.

Day Ahead
Canada – retail sales could bounce back strongly in July after the weak showings seen in May and June. That weakness was possibly due to some spending being deferred until after the July 1 sales tax cut, so there is a risk of a strong July number.

US – the Philly Fed index is due and this bounced back in August (18.5) from a soft July (6.0), although taken together the numbers are not that far away from the 12-14.5 range seen over the previous four months. Last week’s NY Fed index was fairly steady compared to recent months. The prices received category will also be watched by the market, having been a touch higher over the past couple of months (at 17.1) but well off the higher levels seen at various times over the past couple of years (see chart).

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Retail sales (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.6%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.6%
US Initial claims (w/e Sep 16) 08.30 310k
US Continuing claims (w/e Sep 9) 08.30 2499k last
US Lead indicators (Aug) m/m 10.00 -0.2%
US Philly Fed index (Sep) 12.00 14.3

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US FOMC meeting outcome 5.25% 5.25%
NZ Current account (Q2) -NZ$3.1bn -NZ$2.7bn last
JP Trade balance (Aug, sa) ¥0.68trn ¥0.75trn
EU Current account (Jul) -€4.8bn €0.0bn
ZA Current account (Q2) -Z101.7bn -ZAR97bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
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Wed 1 Aug 2018
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Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
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