User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday September 21, 2006 - 21:43:39 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Dollar Breaks Lower as Negative US Reports Signals Slowdown Ahead

FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 09-21-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Breaks Lower as Negative US Reports Signals Slowdown Ahead
• Currency Volatilities Fall to Record Lows
• Long List of Reasons for Yen’s Rise

US Dollar
The US dollar is much weaker today against its counterparts. Having just returned from giving seminars in Asia, I am surprised to see the positive take on yesterday’s FOMC statement. Even though the Federal Reserve repeated that inflation risks remain, they probably only did so to temper the more bearish change that they made to the statement which was to say that they no longer see the slowdown in the housing market as gradual. Any hopes that the Fed will resume its rate hikes this year is probably wishful thinking. Their true inflation concerns should be relatively moderate because in the third paragraph of their statement, they said that “inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time” thanks to “reduced impetus from energy prices” and the effects of their past interest rate hikes. Oil prices have fallen significantly over the past few weeks driving gasoline prices lower as well, which should keep inflationary pressures well contained. Economic data has been lackluster at best. We did see a strong retail sales report last week, but every other piece of data released in recent weeks was either in line or worst than expected. There is actually further evidence of slowing in the housing market. However it took today’s reports to remind traders of the tough times to come in the US economy. Both leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed survey of manufacturing conditions came in negative, signaling slower growth ahead. For the second month in a row, leading indicators fell by 0.2 percent in the month of August while the Philly Fed survey came in negative for the first time in over three years. Even though the outlook for the US economy is grim, the sharp fall in energy prices should keep consumers happy for the time being. Prices at the pump have already fallen and we may even see discounts pop up in other industries if oil prices continue to remain low. Therefore any dollar weakness could be capped by the prior lows of 1.2945 against the Euro and 115.50 against the Japanese Yen, especially since there is no US economic data scheduled for release tomorrow.

Euro
The Euro has finally broken higher after remaining trapped in a relatively tight 1.2650 to 1.2750 trading range for the past two weeks. The current account data was weaker than expected, but the rally in the Euro was primarily due to dollar weakness rather than Euro strength since the single currency lost value against the Japanese Yen, British pound and the Canadian dollar. This is not surprising since it was only two days ago that the German ZEW survey fell to the lowest level in eight years. However even though the report came in weak, it will not prevent the European Central Bank from raising interest rates again in October. At that time, the direction of their monetary policy should come in stark contrast to that of Federal Reserve, which will benefit of the Euro. With dollar losses limited by the fall in oil and Euro gains helped by the central bank’s interest rate hikes, there is no immediate catalyst for the currency pair to break beyond the 1.2630 to 1.2940 trading range that the EUR/USD has been fluctuating in for the past two months. One month volatilities for Euro options have fallen to record lows of 6.85 percent which is typically the volatility that we see in a currency pair like USD/CAD. In fact, volatilities have dropped across the board. The only major currency with volatility still in the double digits is the New Zealand dollar. Tomorrow’s economic data from the Eurozone include French consumer spending and Eurozone industrial orders, neither of which have the power to cause any sharp reactions in the EUR/USD. Traders will have to wait until next week for any excitement.

British Pound
Like the Euro, the British pound has skyrocketed on broad dollar weakness. However unlike the Euro, the pound has a good reason to. While economic data in the Eurozone surprised to the downside, the data reported by the UK was stronger than expected. The CBI Industrial trends survey increased from -8 to -5. Analysts were calling for a smaller improvement, but an increase in the outlook for export orders and output expectations drove the index to its highest level since December 2004. The UK economy continues to remain stable which is coming to the benefit of the British pound against both the Euro and the US dollar. Tomorrow’s car production report has little significance, but next week’s heavy economic data should show signs of more improvements. The outlook for the pound appears promising, but the 1.9120 level will be a tough one to breach for the British pound against the Us dollar.

Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen is stronger across the board today with gains seen against all of the major currency pairs. The Yen is rising for a long list of reasons. First, as mentioned in the special report written by Boris Schlossberg yesterday, the yen is benefiting from margin call liquidation. With so much capital gains as well carry interest profits booked in yen crosses, they are the easiest targets for profit taking by hedge funds in trouble. Much of the rise in oil has been driven by speculative interest as has the practice of shorting the yen to fund carry trades. At a time when investors will be critiquing the health of their hedge fund investments, we suspect that many funds will be looking to dress up their balance sheets as they rush to reassure investors that they are not in the same trouble as Amaranth. Cashing in on profits could continue to come to the benefit of the yen. Meanwhile the new military rule in Thailand continues to remain peaceful which is a sigh of relief for the Asian region as a whole. Oil prices also continue to remain low while the market speculates on the possibility of a near term revaluation move by China. Even though recent data has mostly been weak, we expect that the lower value of the yen against the Euro and the US dollar in the months of August and September will help turn things around in the months to come.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105