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Friday September 22, 2006 - 09:53:49 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar drops as Philadelphia Fed Survey turns negative
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar fell after the September Philadelphia Fed Survey report showed business activity slowing down in the US mid-Atlantic region for the first time in over three years. The Dollar was already under pressure after the Fed kept rates unchanged and said inflation risks were moderating. The report posted the first negative reading since April 2003 supporting expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again in 2006. EurUsd went up 0.8% to 1.2798 from low 1.2697, the biggest one-day advance in two months. UsdJpy dropped from 117.18 to 116.80 before figures, and declined to 116.22 low; 0.9% biggest fall in one day since early September. Gbpusd rose from 1.8900 to 1.9040, it was already set for a bullish tone hitting 1.8996 before US number. Dealers said more weak economic data could bring more trouble for the Dollar in the next few months. UsdZar, dollar slipped to a three year low today 7.6948, extending losses made this month by heavy sell offs across emerging markets and news of growing current account deficit.
Todays Key Issues:
At 9:00 GMT Euro Zone Industrial New Orders expected 1% vs -2.5% (MoM) and 8.4% vs 5.2% (YoY).
Little pause before next week new waves of numbers.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd has finally cleared the range high breaking above 1.2755. Extending this new trend, it is now seen for a stronger climb to 1.2832 and further advanced 1.2880. Key support lies at the recent 1.2630 low. Usdchf yesterday's loss together with a bearish momentum set-up lets us expect further loss towards 1.2380 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2228-1.2625). The next support is base of the broader range at 1.2183. Minor resistance is 1.2545. GBPUSD maintains a firmer intraday tone having cleared 1.8920 former resistance. The next key resistance and pivot point is still before heading for 1.9146 key level. Support pivot is now at 1.8734 where a break there could reinstate a bearish theme. USDJPY couldnâ€™t approach the trendline resistance at 118.50. This is weighting on the Usd. Having break support 116.60, we should expect more weakness targeting 115.50 support. Minor resistance is now 117.50.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.9220 M ||119.40 T ||1.2640 T |
|1.2880 S ||1.9146 K ||118.50 S ||1.2545 M |
|1.2832 M ||1.9094 P ||117.50 M ||1.2380 M |
|1.2827 ||1.9052 ||116.36 ||1.2350 |
|1.2755 M ||1.8920 M ||115.50 S ||1.2310 K |
|1.2630 K ||1.8734 P ||114.75 S ||1.2275 M |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.20 S ||1.2183 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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