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Monday September 25, 2006 - 05:34:50 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar is driving down on expectation of US rate cut early 2007
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar was under pressure after the monthly Philadelphia Fed report on business activity releases late last week. It showed the first negative reading in more than three years. It also brought expectations that the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates next year or before. Last two policy meetings the Fed held rates at 5.25%. Last Friday, Eurusd tried to extend weekâ€™s gains but was overtaken by profit taking from 1.2831 through 1.2800. UsdJpy ended last week at 116.60, not far from two-week low 116.08. EurJpy traded in a less volatile market around 149. Gbpusd is still heading high on growing expectations of a November UK rate rise to 5%. With recent emerging markets tensions, Chf is again seen as safe-haven by investors. Favored Chf, Eurchf went down to 1.5790 minus 1% from weekly high 1.5970. Usdchf, in the same tone, went down 1.2320 from last week 1.2625 high minus 2.4%.
Todays Key Issues:
Sept Germany CPI is expected -03% vs -0.1% (MoM) and 1.1% vs 1.7% (YoY). US August Existing home sales are due at 14:00 GMT expected 6.18M vs 6.33M (-4.1%).
The Risk Today:
EurUsd is consolidates gains from last week high 1.2832. It is also the minor resistance before heading up 1.2880 strong resistance. Support is 1.2755 previous high and breakout trigger. Usdchf last week breaking down 1.2394 would continue through 1.2275 minor support showing the way to 1.2180 trendline. Resistance is holding 1.2545 last Thursday high. GBPUSD consolidated the new short-term trend high at 1.9065 on Friday. With support at 1.8860 recent low, focus will remain on the 1.9094 pivot level. USDJPY consolidated recent declines below previous break off 117. Focus remains on the 115.60 support. USDCAD sold off sharply after the rally from 1.1030 to 1.1295 resistance (61.8% retracement of the 1.1460 to 1.1029 decline). Only a move above 1.1295 would offset downward pressure for now.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.9220 M ||119.40 T ||1.2640 T |
|1.2880 S ||1.9146 K ||118.50 S ||1.2545 M |
|1.2832 M ||1.9094 P ||117.50 M ||1.2380 M |
|1.2814 ||1.9046 ||116.34 ||1.2310 |
|1.2755 M ||1.8920 M ||115.60 S ||1.2310 K |
|1.2630 K ||1.8734 P ||114.75 S ||1.2275 M |
|1.2560 T ||1.8493 T ||114.20 S ||1.2180 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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