User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday September 25, 2006 - 09:53:09 GMT
BHF-Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Briefing

FX Briefing 22 September 2006

• Philly Fed fuels US growth concerns
• Forint drops on political shock in Hungary
• Commodity price decline has so far not impressed forex markets much
• Falling inflation rates make ECB action less urgent

Weak commodities, strong dollar?

After the G7 meeting, EUR-USD continued moving sideways around 1.27. After it had become clear that the finance ministers and central bank governors would not be able to agree on a common line on exchange rate policy, and certainly not on a weakening of the dollar, the forex markets lacked inspiration. They were not even fazed much by the flood of hawkish comments coming from ECB representatives in Singapore. The yen firmed slightly, partly as a result of the BoJ basically confirming its rate hike policy, and partly in connection with the political tension in Thailand, where the controversial prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted in a military coup.

However, towards the end of the week, after the release of the Philadelphia Fed index, concern about US growth mounted again: the Philly Fed index plummeted in September. For the first time in over three years respondents predicted a (slight) decline in economic activity. Because of the risk of the manufacturing industry now weakening too, the markets revised their interest rate expectations quite considerably downwards – especially as the Open Market Committee backed away a little further from its rate rise option in its statement on Tuesday. As a result of all these factors, the forex market livened up after all at the end of the week: EUR-USD rose over 1.28 and USD-JPY dropped below 116.50.

There is an exceptional situation in Hungary at the moment: during the course of the week, the forint fell more than 2% against the euro after some very disturbing comments made by prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany about his government policy and the necessity for reforms had been made public, triggering violent protests, which are still going on. These developments are highlighting the dire state of Hungary’s budget and current accounts and the possibility of EMU entry being delayed. It was only last summer that Hungary postponed the originally planned date (2010). On 10 October, the Ecofin will discuss the new convergence plan, which specifies stringent measures being enforced, for example in health care.

Commodity prices under pressure
One of the most striking developments over the last few weeks is the strong decline of commodity prices. Since mid-July, crude oil has fallen by 19% and gold and copper by 11% respectively. The CRB Index, which comprises agricultural commodities as well as energy products, precious and industrial metals, dropped by a total of about 15% over the same period.

In the first half of this year we had a close correlation between exchange rates and commodity prices. The higher commodities prices went, the more the US dollar weakened against other currencies. Although the euro is not exactly a “commodity currency”, commodities and the euro moved in tandem (cf. graph). The picture is similar for the classic commodity currencies. They in particular have suffered losses in September, because of lower export earnings. The South African rand lost more than 6 % against the dollar, the Brazilian real and the Norwegian krona almost 3 %. Other currencies, such as the Mexican peso and the Australian dollar lost less ground.

But so far the forex market reactions to the slide in commodity prices have been limited. Most observers seem to be taking this as a temporary price correction but see an intact long-term upward trend for commodities because of the expected increases in demand from emerging markets. One argument which supports this assumption with respect to oil, for instance, is that the spread between the front contract and the contracts further down the line has widened significantly.

But one should be cautious here; collective optimism for commodities is not justified. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF, for instance, comes to the conclusion that the prices for metals are likely to come down in the medium term. This holds especially true if growth forecasts are adjusted down, which then also implies higher uncertainty as to the development of commodity currencies.

ECB interest rate hikes: No rush
Given the numerous important indicators from Europe to be published next week, the forex market is likely to focus on the European side. As already mentioned in last week’s FX Briefing, we expect the German and then the European price data on Friday to show that inflation has slowed dramatically. At the same time we expect business climate and industrial confidence (ifo, Eurostat) to have weakened a little further in September. And then the ECB too might start questioning the urgency of its interest rate hikes – at least once the interest rate step planned for October is over and done with.

Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Economics Department
+49 69 718-3642
[email protected]
Foreign Exchange Trading
[email protected]
Jörg Isselmann
+49 69 718-2695
Matthias Grabbe / Klaus Näfken
+49 69 718-2688

This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United States.
© 2005 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft
All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105