User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday September 25, 2006 - 20:00:08 GMT
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets - www.lloydstsb.com/corporatemarkets

Share This Story:
| | Email

Economics Weekly: UK manufacturing shows best performance in 2 years

Economics Weekly: September 25, 2006

UK manufacturing shows best performance in 2 years


A funny thing happened last week, output expectations in manufacturing, as shown by the CBI survey, reached its highest level since December 2004. This means that UK economic growth is set to become more balanced than at any time since 2004. We examine the latest survey results from the CBI for the implications that they may have for economic growth in the year ahead and for monetary policy, concluding that a modest increase in interest rates is now more likely as growth strengthens and inflation pressure rises.

Industrial trends are improving…
There was a surprise rise in firms’ output orders in September, up from a balance of -8 in August to -5, which still means that there are more firms seeing declining orders than rising orders but the best performance since December 2004, see chart a. All of the results in the survey were positive, pointing to the widespread, and more likely sustained, nature of the improvement.

…helped by increased exports…
Perhaps surprisingly, exports are a key reason for the stronger results in the CBI survey of manufacturing. Results showed an improved export orders balance, with a rise to -3 from -6 in August. Of course the negative number suggests that UK manufacturers are still not fully benefiting from the surge in global trade, led by the emerging markets as a group but China, India, Brazil and Russia in particular. However, recovery in Europe is boosting UK exports. Overall, the survey showed that the balance of companies expecting to increase output in the next three months went further into positive territory, rising from a balance of plus 11 in August to plus 14 in September. Chart b shows this balance, if sustained, is consistent with a rise in official manufacturing output of around 2% a year, up from the current increase of 1% recorded in July.

There may be some concern about how long this can be sustained however, since the Purchasing Managers’ survey (PMI), which is also a good indicator of manufacturing activity, has shown some slippage from its 2006 peak in recent months. However, the survey is still suggesting that manufacturing output could be expanding by some 2% a year, in line with the results from the CBI survey.

An easing of firms’ cost pressures on the buying in, or input, side, stemming from a fall in oil and gas prices in the last month may have helped sentiment in UK manufacturing to improve. It may have also led to the fall in firms’ intention to increase their selling prices, see chart c, recorded in September. However, the chart also shows that price pressure is still strong, indicative of a continuing increase in price inflation of around 3½% for headline retail prices.

…but capacity pressure may increase…
Capacity pressure in manufacturing, resulting from the increase in output, may also be intensifying and could lead to price pressure. Chart d shows the lowest balance since 2004 for the number of companies reporting that they have spare capacity. This naturally implies less scope to keep prices down, that demand is stronger than it was and hence that output price increases might be more readily accepted. Certainly, 'demand uncertainty' as reported by the CBI is much less than it has been recently and that this is correlated with a rise in investment intentions, see chart e.

...putting upward pressure on inflation and interest rates
The policy implication of these figures is clear. Starting from the premise that economic growth ahead is expected to be sustained at about 0.7% to 0.9% each quarter by a recovery in manufacturing, as well as by a resurgence in consumer spending as the housing market recovers, it is clear that inflation may be under upward pressure from a lack of spare capacity. This could push up ‘core’ inflation, which excludes energy and foods, even at a time when headline price inflation may be falling as a result of lower oil and gas prices. This makes a rise in interest rates at the November MPC meeting very likely. Moreover, if the economy does record growth of around 2.8% for this year, as now seems likely, it will be starting 2007 with no output gap and so continued upward pressure on price inflation. Since this may be at a time that annual consumer price inflation on the targeted measure is rising at a rate well in excess of 2%, there could be another interest rate rise in 2007, taking base rates to 5.25%, a five year high.

Trevor Williams, Chief Economist
trevor.williams@lloydstsb.co.uk
www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com
Lloyds TSB Bank,
Financial Markets
Division,
Faryners House,
25 Monument,
London EC3R 8BQ
Switchboard:
0207 283 - 1000

Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank nor its directors, officers or employees warrant accuracy, completeness or otherwise, or accept responsibility for any error, omission or other inaccuracy, or for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. The facts and data contained are not, and should under no circumstances be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product, nor are they intended to be a substitute for commercial judgement or professional or legal advice, and you should not act in reliance upon any of the facts and data contained, without first obtaining professional advice relevant to your circumstances. Expressions of opinion may be subject to change without notice. Although warrants and/or derivative instruments can be utilised for the management of investment risk, some of these products are unsuitable for many investors. The facts and data contained are therefore not intended for the use of private customers (as defined by the FSA Handbook) of Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a signatory to the Banking Codes, and represents only the Scottish Widows and Lloyds TSB Marketing Group for life assurance, pension and investment business.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105