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Tuesday September 26, 2006 - 10:23:13 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar holds gains versus euro after housing data
By Stéphane Marie - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar gained against the euro on Monday, buoyed by unexpectedly resilient U.S. home sales data, but moved little against most currencies as investors braced for a big week of U.S. economic data. Gains were limited, though, with consumer confidence and inflation data still to come later in the week. Major currencies have been trapped in narrow ranges for the past couple of months as investors look for more clues on monetary policy after the Federal Reserve halted a two year long tightening policy in August.
Todays Key Issues:
German IFO- Expectations (Sept).
US September Consumer Confidence.
The Risk Today:
Consumer Confidence data is due today, while later in the week investors will take a close look at the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the Fedâ€™s favorite measure of inflation. Investors are also awaiting, closely watched, German IFO business climate survey for September following a rise in the business confidence indicator in Belgium. The headline figure is expected to come in at 104.4 down from 105 in the previous month and the third straight monthly decline. Even so, the index would not be far off the 15 year highs posted in June, and signs of a resilient euro-zone economy are expected to lead the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again in October to keep a lid on inflation. Despite its declining rate advantage, the dollar has held up well and is set to end the third quarter virtually flat against a basket of six major currencies. Some banks are still betting on a turnaround.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 K ||1.9219 S ||118.30 T ||1.2625 S |
|1.2880 S ||1.9146 T ||117.77 S ||1.2545 T |
|1.2834 M ||1.9094 M ||117.49 P ||1.2432 M |
|1.2715 ||1.8950 ||116.40 ||1.2411 |
|1.2708 S ||1.8920 M ||115.96 T ||1.2287 T |
|1.2630 K ||1.8863 S ||115.56 S ||1.2274 S |
|1.2575 M ||1.8797 K ||115.18 K ||1.2228 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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