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Tuesday September 26, 2006 - 10:45:32 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD rally crumbles despite resilient IFO.
• EUR-JPY threatening key support at 147.60.
• EUR-GBP testing key support at 0.6700.
• US consumer confidence features today.
• Paulson due to meet senators Schumer and Graham.

Market Outlook

The response in EUR-USD to last Thursday’s break higher has not been that impressive and the rally finally crumbled this morning in spite of a stronger than expected IFO survey. EURUSD had been trading below key support at 1.2740-50 ahead of the IFO, but rallied to 1.2757 after it was released. However, fifteen minutes later it was back below 1.2740 and it has been weakening ever since.

The inability of EUR-USD to build on last week’s move higher is another sign that the market still has little appetite for fresh direction. In the absence of such a bias there is a danger of old positions being eroded and this does leave some near-term downside risk for the EUR in general.

Positional problems are most apparent on EUR-JPY and the move below 148.20 this morning leaves risk of a test and possible break of 147.60 later today. Below that level will leave risk down towards 146.00. Paulson meets with senators Schumer and Graham today and he is likely to suggest that they back off with their tariff demands and give the new US/China dialogue a chance. If this happens it will support expectations of further CNY adjustment. The prospect of this meeting may also be helping the positional move in the JPY’s favour.

The EUR is also under pressure against GBP and there is a risk of long-standing support at 0.6700 breaking down today – leaving risk towards 0.6600.

As for IFO itself, this once again exposed the ZEW survey as a poor indicator of underlying economic conditions. The IFO expectations component did follow ZEW expectations lower, but only modestly, while current conditions rose sharply to a fresh fifteen-year high. All of this is good news for the EUR from a medium-term perspective, but it doesn’t really change the market’s near-term view of ECB policy risk.

The NZ trade deficit was wider than expected, although for now the market seems to be in the mood to ignore such developments and to focus instead on the fresh rate hike risk in place after the recent RBNZ statement. The NZD initially dipped on the news then proceeded to make a fresh high (0.6723) before eventually settling lower. Support at 0.6640-60 needs to hold today to sustain the recent upmove and the focus is now firmly on Friday’s Q2 GDP data. Resistance is now in the 0.6720-40 area.

Day Ahead
US – the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is out today and a decent recovery should be seen after the sharp fall recorded in August, helped by the recent fall in fuel prices. The latter should provide an offset to the weaker data on housing and is also likely to pull the inflation expectations component lower.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Sep 23) w/w 07.45 -1.1% last
US Redbook sls (w/e Sep 23) m/m 08.55 0.0% last
US Consumer confidence (Sep) 10.00 103.0
US Paulson meets Schumer/Graham 11.30
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Sep 24) 17.00 -15 last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Trade balance (Aug) -NZ$961m -NZ$732m
JP CSPI (Aug) y/y +0.3% 0.0%
DE Import prices (Aug) y/y +5.5% +5.5%
DE IFO index (Sep) 104.9 104.4
DE IFO current (Sep) 111.3 108.4
DE IFO expectations (Sep) 98.9 100.5
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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