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Thursday September 28, 2006 - 10:21:58 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
FX Market stuck in messy ranges again
By Stéphane Marie - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar edged lower against the euro on Wednesday after a reading on July home sales was revised sharply downward, reviving speculation that the Federal Reserveâ€™s next move may be an interest rate cut. The sharp decline in July sales was the worst since March 2003 and ultimately outweighed data showing that, in August, more new homes found buyers than the market expected. The dollar briefly popped higher on the August number but it then retraced those gains against the euro.
But neither the housing data nor an August decline in new orders for durable goods such as computers and appliances knocked the euro out of its tight $ 1.2628-$ 1.2874 band thatâ€™s held in September. In the third quarter of 2006, which ends September 30th, the euro has been stuck in an only slightly broader $ 1.2456-$ 1.2939 range, never testing the yearâ€™s $ 1.2979 high touched early June.
Todays Key Issues:
US final Q2 GDP at 13h30 BST.
US Weekly Jobless Claims at 13h30 BST.
CAD August Industrial Product Price at 13h30 BST.
US August Help Wanted Index at 15h00 BST.
The Risk Today:
Thursdayâ€™s events include final U.S. second quarter GDP data expected to be confirmed at an annualized 2.9 percent and a speech by ECB Executive Board Member. The upcoming U.S. economic reports, including key inflation report on Friday, may give the dollar more direction and provide more clues to investors about the future path of U.S. interest rates.
In Japan the focus has been on the new government of the freshly appointed Prime Minister. Omiâ€™s comments on euro/yen were seen as reducing the chance of any Japanese intervention to counteract weakness. Tokyo traders were also anticipating data on core consumer prices and industrial production for August due on Friday, which will offer a prelude to the Bank of Japanâ€™s tankan survey of business sentiment on Monday. Forecasts are for nationwide core CPI to rise 0.3% in August after a 0.2% climb in July. A soft reading in core prices and the Tankan could further confirm market expectations that rates may remain at 0.25% through the end of the calendar year, which could ignite selling pressure on the yen in the near term.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.9219 S ||119.00 T ||1.2625 S |
|1.2834 S ||1.8910 T ||118.30 S ||1.2545 T |
|1.2763 M ||1.8860 M ||117.77 P ||1.2497 M |
|1.2712 ||1.8800 ||117.50 ||1.2450 |
|1.2680 S ||1.8763 M ||116.06 T ||1.2368 T |
|1.2630 K ||1.8750 S ||115.56 S ||1.2287 S |
|1.2580 M ||1.8683 K ||115.18 K ||1.2274 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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