User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday September 28, 2006 - 10:35:31 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• JPY remains soft - CPI data awaited.
• EUR-GBP reverses higher after data revisions.
• NOK boosted by hawkish tone from Norges Bank.

Market Outlook

The JPY remained weak in Asia but bounced back for a while against the EUR midway through the European morning following comments from vice finance minister Fujii, who said that recent EUR-JPY movements had been “a bit rough”. This follows yesterday’s comments from new finance minister Omi, who said that he saw no need to comment on EUR-JPY. This should help to cap EUR-JPY in the high 149s in the run-up to tonight’s CPI data, which will be important in determining whether current appetite for JPY shorts can be extended.

EUR-GBPis up again this morning, with the market looking further at the detail behind yesterday’s GDP revision. As well as the downward revision from +0.8% q/q to +0.7% in real Q2 GDP – nominal or money GDP was revised down to +4.8% y/y from +6.0% due to the correction of an error. The MPC had noted the strength in this number at their September meeting. The revision does not necessarily mean that rates will not be hiked in November, but the news runs counter to recent developments, with the market having grown confident about a further hike in Q1. This confidence will now be much reduced. The move above 0.6740 on EUR-GBP is technically significant and suggests that downside risk has been removed for now. In this regard the bias will turn to the upside today and any move above 0.6777 leaves risk up into the 0.6800-25 area.

Norwegian labour market data was stronger than expected, offsetting the softer retail sales data, which is typically volatile. The data backs up the more hawkish framework advanced at yesterday’s policy meeting. The Norges Bank noted that core CPI had been weaker than expected, but in referring to other factors they said that “new data indicate that pressures in the Norwegian economy are now building up more rapidly than expected. At the same time, the krone has depreciated from high values.” They kept the reference to the ‘small, not too frequent steps’ approach to tightening adopted so far, although after yesterday’s hawkish words the market will be on the lookout for further developments that would raise the forecast rate profile. Yesterday’s comments certainly firm up the notion that 25bp rate hikes will now be seen at every two meetings, starting with a move on November 1, then in January, April and June. The move in EUR-NOK below 8.2375 is potentially significant (double top on the chart) if it can be sustained early in the US session. Below 8.1675 is needed to truly switch the bias back to the downside.

Day Ahead
US – the final estimate of Q2 GDP is unlikely to have too much market impact, while weekly jobless claims are also due.

New Zealand – Q2 GDP is out tonight although a fairly unusual number will be needed to freshly influence RBNZ expectations and the NZD. The key data will be next month’s quarterly CPI release. Support on NZD is at 0.6535.

Japan – CPI is the main feature in Japan tonight, with labour market, industrial output and PMI data also due. Last month’s CPI revisions were a real shocker to the market, although the fact that the last couple of month’s worth of core y/y rates are still rising has allowed the authorities to maintain that CPI is still on a rising trend (albeit from a lower base and much later than previously thought). The market is looking for CPI ex-fresh foods to nudge up to +0.3% y/y from +0.2% and such a development would be helpful to the claim that an uptrend is still in place. The other measure of core CPI, which excludes energy as well as food, was -0.2% y/y last month. The government pushed for the introduction of this measure at the beginning of the year in their attempts to argue that deflation was not dead. However, the latest data was so weak that even they have started to ignore it, on the basis that it may convey the wrong psychological signal in the battle against deflation. The latest reading on industrial output will be important as an indication about whether or not last month’s weakness was a one-off. A number of economic activity measures have been weak over the past couple of months, although last week’s strong export numbers and stronger than expected MoF business survey suggested that conditions might not be that bad.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Norges Bank’s Bergo speaks 08.00
US GDP (Q2, final est) saar 08.30 +2.9%
US Core PCE prices (Q2, fin est) saar 08.30 +2.8%
US Initial claims (w/e Sep 23) 08.30 315k
US Continuing claims (w/e Sep 16) 08.30 2461k last
CA Industrial PI (Aug) m/m 08.30 -0.3%
CA Raw materials PI (Aug) m/m 08.30 -0.8%
NZ Business confidence (Sep) 09.00 -33.9 last
FR Unemployment rate (Aug) 18.00 8.9%
FR ILO job seekers (Aug) m/m 18.00 -20k
NZ GDP (Q2) q/q 18.45 +0.6%
JP CPI Tokyo (Sep, core) y/y 19.30 0.0%
JP CPI Nwide (Aug, core) y/y 19.30 +0.3%
JP Unemployment rate (Aug) 19.30 4.1%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Aug) 19.30 1.10
JP Overall PCE (Aug) y/y 19.30 -1.2%
JP PMI manu (Sep) 19.30 54.6 last
JP Ind prod (Aug, prel) m/m 19.50 +2.0%
AU Private sector credit (Aug) m/m 21.30 +1.1%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Retail sales (Aug) m/m +2.0% +1.0%
JP Small business confidence (Sep) 50.1 49.9
GB N’wide house prices (Sep) m/m +1.3% +0.4%
SE Retail sales (Aug) m/m -0.1% +0.3%
DE Unemployment (Sep) -17k -25k
DE Employment (Aug) +29k +53k last
NO Unemployment rate (Sep, nsa) 2.4% 2.5%
NO Retail sales (Aug) m/m -0.2% +0.2%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105