Thursday September 28, 2006 - 10:39:06 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
â€˘ German unemployment fell in September after companies stepped up hiring as consumer confidence reached the highest level in almost five years. (Bloomberg)
â€˘ China will raise charges of electricity supplied to some energy-intensive industries by an average of 50 percent over the next three years to ease shortages, cut output and promote conservation.
â€˘ Robust U.S. productivity growth is likely to persist "for some time," providing continuing support to the U.S. economy and living standards, Federal Reserve governor Randall Kroszner said Wednesday. (WSJ)
â€˘ Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. For Sept 23 Wk. Previous: +7K.
8:30a.m. 2Q Final GDP. Previous: +2.9%.
10:00a.m. Aug Help Wanted Index. Previous: 33.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. For Sept 16 Wk. Previous: Unch.
â€śIf the economy is, as many claim, self-correcting, the relevant question to ask is why we have a central bank -- and why we spend all our waking hours divining its next move.
â€śAs long as there is a central bank that sets the rate at which banks borrow from and lend to one another to meet mandatory reserve requirements or satisfy funding needs -- as long as the central bank creates money out of thin air -- long-term interest rates can't do the Fed's work.â€ť
FX Trading - Hodgepodge
More mixed data from the USâ€”durable orders bad, new home sales goodâ€”not much reaction in the currency markets. This morning we get good news from Germanyâ€”lower unemployment and strong machine ordersâ€”yet the euro barely budges. Hmmm!
EURUSD Daily with 50- and 200-day moving averages; the 50-day is rolling over but itâ€™s still trading well above the 200-day:
CHART EURUSD Daily
The US has never* gone into recession when YOY disposable income growth has remained above zero:
The exception is 1970 when it came very close to zeroâ€¦but now real disposable income is on the rise. If â€śinflationâ€ť remains in check or falls and the job market remains firm, real disposable income may continue to rise.
CHART US Real Disposable Income
If the US consumer is still in-play, which means the Fed is still in-play, than bonds may start to look a bit pricey:
CHART 30-yr T-Bond Futures
Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Black Swan Subscription-based Service
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