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Thursday September 28, 2006 - 14:13:26 GMT
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Forex Market Update: Soft US data

Published: Sep. 28 2006, 13:29 GMT

Soft US data
Lower GDP and Initial Jobless failed to send the USD lower.


MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• SW Retail Sales (Aug) mom -0.1% vs 0.3% exp.,yoy8.0% vs. 8.5% exp.
• GE Unemployment Rate (sept) 10.6% vs. 10.6% exp.
• Norways Unemployment Rate (sept) 2.4% vs. 2.5%, Retail Sales (Aug) yoy 5.1% vs. 4.0% exp.
• SA PPI (Aug) PPI 9.2% vs. 8.5% exp.
• US GDP Annualized (2Q F ) 2.6% vs. 2.9% exp
• US Personal Consumption 2.6% vs. 2.6% exp.
• US Industrial Product Price (Aug) .0.5 vs. 0.0%
• US Raw Materials Price Index (Aug) -3.5% vs. 0.5% exp.
• US Core PCE qoq (2Q F) 2.7% vs. 2.8% exp.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (Sept) 316K vs. 315K exp
• NZ NBNZ Business Confidence (sept) -28.9 vs. -33.9 prior reading.

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
• German GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct) out at 8.8 vs. 8.6 expected.
• Swedish Manufacturing Confidence (Sep) out at 4 vs. 5 expected.
• Swedish Consumer Confidence (Sep) out at 18.6 vs. 17.0 expected.
• Italian Business Confidence (Sep) out at 97.3 vs. 94.3 expected.
• Italian Retail Sales MoM (Jul) out at 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected.
• UK GDP QoQ (2Q F) out at 0.7% vs. 0.8% expected.
• Swiss KOF Leading Indicator (Sep) out at 2.32 vs. 2.42 expected.
• UK Distributive Trade (Sep) rises to 14.
• Norwegian Deposit Rates out at 3.00% as expected (unchanged).
• US Durable Goods Orders (Aug) out at -0.5% vs. 0.5% expected.
• US DGO Ex Transportation (Aug) out at -2.0% vs. 0.5% expected.
• US New Home Sales (Aug) out at 1050K vs. 1040K exp. MoM at 4.1%.
• Japanese Retail Trade and Sales figures surprising to the UPSIDE!
• Japanese Small Business Confidence (Sep) out at 50.1 vs. 49.9 exp.
• Japanese Finance Minister Omi doesn’t think EURJPY is “too high”.


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• US Help Wanted
• NZ Building Permit and GDP
• JN Jobless Rate and CPI string

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
JPY
Better then expected Japanese retail trade figures (yoy 1.3% vs 0.2% exp, mom 2.0% vs. 1.1%) failed to support JPY. Instead, PM Abe’s most prominent cabinet appointment so far gave more then enough reason to weaken the JPY further. “I’m hearing that people are saying the yen is somewhat weak against the euro, but I don’t think we are at the stage to make special comments or act at the moment,” said Mr Omi, who then remarked that currency prices should “reflect economic fundamentals”. The new finance minister showed his inexperience and the market took his comments as a clearance to buy EURJPY. EURJPY reached 149.50 and USDJPY hit 117.54 in Asia trading.
U
SD
Today's US GDP growth data could not be more important to the outlook of the USD….not really an epiphany. We are in agreement with the broader market in expecting a 2.9% figure, as declining growth seems to be tapering off. However, after the mixed reading yesterday in durable goods falling and new home sales jumping, the market is undecided as to which way to play the USD. Right now the USD seems to be data depended and significant deviations from market expectations will illicit a market response. Despite recent firming, USD pairs are still trading within summer ranges and we advise trading the range.

CAD
Canadian seems to be back in action, gaining roughly 1.7% in the last six days of trading, as economic indicators are coming back in line with expectations (Retail Sales (Jul) mom jumped 1.5% and less autos 0.7%). Today’s industrial production prices and raw material prices should provide guidance into the inflationary pressure which might be building. The BoC has been relatively dovish on interest rates, while we don’t expect these figure to greatly influence policy makers, trade should always speculate and send the USDCAD thru the 1.1040/50 support.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2697 @ 13:27 GMT)
EURUSD still unable to close above the bear channel from late August and yesterday's close below 1.2700 brings a bearish/neutral stand back in to play. Be a seller on rallies as long as 1.2720-30 remains intact for a test of 1.2630 suppoort and possibly 1.2550 the lower end of the current bear channel.
Resist.
1.2794
1.2745
1.2723
1.2697
1.2674
1.2648
1.2600
Support

Quoted:
28 Sep 06
13:27 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8763 @ 13:28 GMT)
GBPUSD made a strong downside correction yesterday breaking 1.8980, but unable to close below 1.8940-50 38% retracement form recent wave along with bull trend line from Sep. 18. We look to trade the pair with a neutral stand either buying the break of (likely not intra-day) for a test of 1.9090 or the break of 1.8940 yesterday's low for a test of 1.8905 and possibly 1.8865.
Resist.
1.9118
1.9010
1.8951
1.8763
1.8843
1.8794
1.8686
Support

Quoted:
28 Sep 06
13:28 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (117.79 @ 13:28 GMT)
USDJPY finding renewed upside giving the pair a short term bullish bias above 116.60-70 and buy the down ticks. Or buy the break of 117.25 for a test of 117.80 intra-day. Further out we still need to see a break of either 115.55 or 118.40 to give a more supportive medium term trend.

Resist.
118.86
118.10
117.80
117.79
117.04
116.59
115.83
Support

Quoted:
28 Sep 06
13:28 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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John M. Bland, MBA
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